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We Will Succeed or Fail—Together: caring for our built-natural environment (Part 3 The Future: Some Background for Program Management)

13 Saturday May 2023

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The world is overwhelmingly short-term focused, and no one really knows what the future holds as the global built-natural environment evolves. It likely will be more or less recognizable compared to today. Many of us, but not all, have enjoyed living in a high-quality built environment/standard of living while our natural environment has degraded, largely unnoticed by many. Changes to our built-natural environment will likely not happen quickly but over decades, centuries, and millennia (if this isn’t considered quickly, which is a relative term). During this time, our built-natural environment is poised for significant change, some for the worse and hopefully some for the better (World Economic Forum, 2023). There is also the Doomsday Clock, originally established with the involvement of Albert Einstein to approximate humanity’s end from nuclear weapons. It has since been expanded to include other threats, and that clock keeps moving forward toward midnight (Weise, 2023a). There are also dire predictions from credible sources and acknowledgment that it is too late to fully prevent the resulting impacts (Jazeera, 2023, Ripple et al., 2023; Sumata, 2023). These predictions include ones from a Nobel Peace Prize-winning collection of scientists and perhaps the greatest group of scientists ever assembled—the International Governmental Panel on Climate Change or IPCC (2023). The press has highlighted this report (e.g., 9News, 2023; Borenstein and Jordans, 2023; Rice and Pulver, 2023). Others forecast variations on this future, but they are not substantially different (Barrage and Nordhaus, 2023; Watts, 2023; van der Wijst et al., 2023). These are in addition to the prescient 1972 Limits to Growth projections (Meadows et al., 1972), updates and various off-shoot initiatives (Bardi and Pereira, 2022; Herrington 2022), and myriad associated efforts (We Don’t Have Time, nd) that have precipitated this four-part series. There are also more optimistic outlooks based on currently available technologies (Weise, 2023b). Although somewhat dated, one study found that not one of 150 countries meets basic needs of its citizens at a globally sustainable level of resource use (O’Neill et al., 2018). An interesting link is also provided with this citation (O’Neill et al., 2018) that provides a comparison of various resource usage for these 150 countries. Ultimately, no one precisely knows what the future holds, although the facts and trend lines of the risks to our global society, economy, and built and natural environments appear indisputable. Thus, it may be best to view these various scenarios within a “cone of possibilities” while planning and preparing for the worst.

Some projections are that sea level will rise 12 inches by 2050 (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2022a). That’s less than 27 years from now. Ten percent of the world’s population live in coastal areas less than 32 feet above sea level (Bressan, 2021), 267 million are less than six feet above sea level, 44 percent live within about 90 miles of the coast, and eight of the ten largest cities in the world are near a coast (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2022b). This does not consider more intense storms (marine and terrestrial) from increased heat in the oceans and the atmosphere. Biodiversity extinction continues at alarming rates (70 percent of wildlife is already lost). That diversity is the basis of a healthy planetary ecosystem for all living things, including humans.

Biodiversity encompasses the living nature in all its variety. It provides many services, including climate regulation, pollination and soil formation, decomposing wastes, provision of raw materials, and contributions to our mental and physical well-being. There are three dimensions to biodiversity: ecosystems, species, and genetics. More than 90% of biodiversity loss is caused by five drivers: land degradation and habitat destruction, resource (over) exploitation, climate change, pollution, and invasive species.”

Avice-Hyet and Petit, 2023

It’s hard to estimate other high risks, including continuing wars such as in Ukraine. The coming decade will largely find whether we will succeed or fail in maintaining a quality, built-natural environment for all within a healthy global ecosystem.

Politics may seem real (and it has a definite impact on our lives, positive and negative), but it’s not reality even though it feels like it since we’ve all been raised within economic and societal systems.  The natural environment is the base reality of a livable built-natural environment including the natural resources we need to have quality lives (clean air, clean water, clean food, etc.).

Ultimately, “Mother Nature” holds the “trump card,” while the built environment and the natural resources we need will pay the price financially, economically, quality of life, and extinction of species, potentially including ourselves. Even the rich are subject to Mother Nature’s laws and behaviors. While they may be able to protect themselves from her ravages for a while, eventually, she will impact them as she has the most vulnerable. (Jazeera, 2022).

Our world is approaching a mass extinction of nature, similar to those caused by the asteroid that slammed into the Gulf of Mexico 66 million years ago, ending the Cretaceous period and the age of dinosaurs. The asteroid wiped out 75% of all life on Earth. The difference this time is that slow-motion destruction is still progressing right before our human eyes (Ramanujan, 2021). The net consequences for nature, including humans, could be catastrophic given time and events unless we take them seriously.  (Cowie et al., 2022; Dryden and Duncan, 2022; Greenfield, 2023; Greshko, 2021; McGuigan, 2022). Understanding both the physical and social tipping points is critical to mitigate and avoid the worst impacts (National Academies, 2023b). One intriguing book recently released explores the contribution of social sciences in conservation and conserving biodiversity (Miller et al, 2023). A better understanding is essential considering the central role humans are playing in the Anthropocene Epoch and degradation of our global ecosystem (McCoy, 2023). Moreover, nature will help us save the planet if we let it (Carew, 2023).

The central challenge is for us as humans is to see ourselves as part of the natural world, not separate or superior to it (Figure 4). There is hope and movement in a recent initiative called the Well Being Economy Governments Partnership (Meredith, 2023). This effort seems to be growing and is one to watch. It was stunning that the President of Ireland, Michael D. Higgins, recently condemned the obsession with economic growth and urged the country to rebalance the economy, ecology, and ethics (Leahy, 2023). Valuing various aspects of nature, such as infrastructure, continues (The Editors, 2023). There are also many other ideas and efforts underway. Some of which are Reuters (2023), Rotterdam School of Management (2020), Savini (2022), Stanway (2023), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Program Engineering with Nature (U. S. Army Corps of Engineers, n.d.), National Academies (2022), and United Nations (2023b). This does not exclude the vast number of other efforts underway (e.g., Puko, 2023). The European Union has recently established sustainability rules that will require more rigorous reporting by companies around the world (Holger, 2023). Recently, the small Pacific Island country of Vanuatu is poised to gain UN approval to seek an unprecedented legal opinion from The Hague on what obligation countries have to combat climate change (Freedman, 2023). This is another aspect to watch for how it develops. With my background in transportation, it is appropriate to give a nod to the myriad efforts in that venue (Khatib, 2023). Technology advances are also in the mix (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2023c). It is also encouraging to see other system integration efforts, in this case, the integration of ecosystem health and public health (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2023a). After all, we are all dependent on a healthy ecosystem.

Figure 4. Humans superior to or separate from versus a part of the natural world. (Source: Hans Lak LinkedIn post 11-21-2022)

While the science behind how and how quickly our global ecosystem will change is not precise, the risks could not be higher in dismissing the timing or severity of these changes. While world-class scientists have overwhelming evidence of the impacts and how to mitigate them (United Nations Thailand, 2023, World Economic Forum, 2022, 2023), we cannot become seduced into ignoring or reducing the urgency of arguments on the precision (Bailey, 2023) of what can be done to mitigate the greatest impacts, or outright misinformation and denials (Banerjee et al., 2021). Others, including banks (Kusnetz, 2023), have not sufficiently moved toward a more sustainable built-natural environment. Inadequate action will only increase the risks. There are confounding features of our global environment, such as net growth of Antarctic Sea ice, that has yet to be explained and appears to be acting differently than the Arctic relative to global warming (Blanchard-Wrigglesworth et al., 2022; Antarctica Journal, 2023; NASA Earth Observatory n.d.; Parkinson, 2019). This does not mean that global warming is not real, but it does point out we have a lot to understand.

Planet Earth has one global ecosystem that contains a subordinate human global society and economy. In protecting our planet Earth, re-ordering our human systems to be compatible with nature, and changing hearts and minds, we will succeed or fail—together. (Gergis, 2022; Watts, 2022).

In one final thought, I have recently realized that there is an inextricable link between the existential threats of balancing truly sustainable built-natural environments and of castes in the United States and around the world (Bakewell-Stone, 2021; Wilkerson, 2020)—a planetary crisis. Over the next 20 years, we are going to encounter a “karmic moment of truth” as to how we collectively determine the quality and direction of our world society, built, and natural environments (Isabel Wilkerson interview of 2-13-2023 on The Last Word news broadcast with Lawrence O’Donnell; World Economic Forum, 2023; Vespa, 2020). We must become a real pluralistic society in the United States and globally. Diversity in nature and humanity is the default, not a monoculture. Diversity provides deeper, more flexible, more resilient, and ultimately stronger systems.

In a world without caste, being male or female, light or dark, immigrant or native-born, would have no bearing on what anyone was perceived as being capable of. In a world without caste, we would all be invested in the well-being of others in our species if only for our own survival, and recognize that we are in need of one another more than we have been led to believe. We would join forces with indigenous people around the world raising the alarm as fires rage and glaciers melt. We would see that, when others suffer, the collective human body is set back from the progression of our species. A world without caste would set everyone free.”

Wilkerson, 2020

It is the human species that has fashioned the world in which we live, and the trends we have created. Likewise, our responsibility is to solve our built-natural environment challenges while resolving our caste issues. The United Nations (2023a, 2023b, 2023c), and many others have stoked, advocated, and advanced needed change. Still, “The 2020s will be remembered as the decade that determined the fate of humanity. We can each choose to be part of the critical mass that will change the world. And when we do, it will bring profound meaning and purpose to our lives.” (Lohan, 2023; Gergis, 2023).

Wisdom is knowing that you know nothing.”

—Socrates 399 B.C., from ‘Plato’s Apology’ (my simple interpretation: to have the humility for continuous learning and changing your thinking)

Let’s face it, the universe is messy. It is nonlinear, turbulent, and chaotic. It is dynamic. It spends its time in transient behavior on its way to somewhere else, not in mathematically neat equilibria. It self-organizes and evolves. It creates diversity, not uniformity. That’s what makes the world interesting, that’s what makes it beautiful, and that’s what makes it work.” 

—Donella Meadows

If all mankind were to disappear, the world would regenerate back to the rich state of equilibrium that existed ten thousand years ago. If insects were to vanish, the environment would collapse into chaos.” 

—Edward O. Wilson

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We will Succeed or Fail—Together: caring for our built-natural environment (Part 2 A Systems Approach and Tenants for a Path Forward: Some Background for Program Management)

02 Sunday Apr 2023

Posted by in Biological Diversity, Built Environment, Business Transformation, Clean Energy, Climate, Collaboration, Communications, Construction, Economics, Economy, Education, Empowering Women, Environment, Environmental Justice, Extinction of Species, Feedback Loops, Future, Governance, Government & Policy, Growth, Homo sapiens, Human Rights, Inequality, Infrastructure, Investing, Leadership, Learning and Success, Natural Environment, Partnerships and Collaboration, Performance Measurement and Management, Planning, Polarization, Poverty, Program Management, Project Management, Recycling, Relationships, Resilience, Results, Risks, Social Justice and Equity, Society, Strategic Planning, Sustainability, Systems Thinking, Tipping Ponts, Transportation, Turn-arounds, Wealth, Well-being

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There are a lot of systems thinkers but two are among my favorites:

  • Edward O. Wilson, a world-renowned scientist of the natural environment (Wilson, 1998, 2012, 2014, 2016, and many others not reflected in this blog)
  • Robert Prieto, a world-renowned engineer of the built environment (Prieto, 2008, 2015, 2017, 2020, 2022a, 2022b, and many others not reflected in this blog)

Another favorite of mine is Donella Meadows’ Thinking in Systems (2008) a sustainability-focused book and one of the original 1972 The limits to Growth authors. Many others are actively addressing the fundamentals of improving our built-natural environment.

There are also other systems thinking efforts toward more holistic thinking underway. It is encouraging to see efforts on valuing nature, such as a recent agreement by the United States and Australia (Chung, 2022)  and others (MacEacheran, 2022; Well Being Economy Alliance, n.d.). Two of the more significant efforts toward more holistic thinking include the National Academies (2022) report with recommendations on taking a systems approach toward a better understanding of the built-natural environment and Gaya Herrington’s (2022) book on five insights from a relook at the original Limits to Growth model which confirmed the original 1972 trend lines. I am especially struck by the latter’s objectivity and clarity. In sum, her five insights are:

  1. We are connected, and acting like we are not has led us to the brink of collapse.
  2. Growth is not a good goal. In fact, it is the cause of society’s problems.
  3. We need to fundamentally change society’s priorities if we want to avoid significant declines in our current levels of well-being.
  4. Time is of the essence to make this change.
  5. The end of the growth pursuit does not mean the end of progress, quite the opposite.

Tenants of a path forward:

I have tried to establish this list of tenants which will be needed to engage the challenges of global growth in a meaningful and productive way.

  1. A good faith effort must be made by all, or at least a majority, to avoid the tipping points, which could last centuries if not millennia (Dixon-Declève et al., 2022).
  2. A clear and straightforward focus must be developed to bring these challenges to the attention of the public. The lack of a clear focus, in fact, may be part of the problem in engaging our global society in an acutely focused direction forward rather than for narrow scientific, engineering, or other interests. This is a very difficult task. The world is now replete with conferences, meetings, books, publications, and other venues on a path forward before it is too late. This collection of venues is so vast it is virtually impossible to stay up with, much less digest.
  3. A clear strategy and planning are needed to substantially manage positive and negative risks. Some are asserted by Dixon-Declève et al. (2022) as follows:
    • Ending poverty
    • Addressing gross inequality (Copley, 2022; Gleick, 2021)
    • Empowering women
    • Making food healthy for people and ecosystems
    • Transitioning to clean energy
  4. A program management approach is needed. A program involves interrelated projects combined with a systems approach. The extra investment required to build a more resilient civilization is estimated at two to four percent of global income per year for sustainable energy and food security alone. These “turnarounds” will surely be disruptive, and the likelihood of occurring is not high (Dixon-Declève, et al., 2022).
  5. Priorities must be made. This will be neither clear nor simple, but I would suggest a good starting point is Herrington’s Figure 32 titled “Finance system within ecosystem, stable versus fragile” (Herrington, 2022). I might suggest calling this figure “Herrington’s Hierarchy of our Planet.” This is no great surprise since we all live within our planet’s natural ecosystem.
  6. Meaningful metrics must be developed. I say meaningful because everything that can be measured is not important, and everything important cannot be easily measured. Recently, NASA space satellites are tracking 50 super emitters around the world (Greicius, 2023; Hartono, 2022).  Some metrics being used are not accurate and therefore misleading and not very meaningful to developing a sustainable built-natural environment (Elgin and Rangarajan, 2022; Boudreau, 2022). This is highly problematic. Still, accurate and meaningful metrics on the health of our natural environment must be weighted equally, or higher, to the built environment on which it depends. They must reflect reality, not wrong, misleading, or inaccurate metrics that only make the task more difficult, if not impossible. This also includes a standard definition and understanding of terms (Jones, 2022; Savini, 2022).
  7. Above all, action must be taken in conjunction with feedback loops to measure progress and enable adjustments to align the way. Without action, it is just a lot of talk. Dixon-Declève et al (2022) provide a pretty common sense list of actions for our future which I have adapted.
    • Reduce polarization.
    • Share wealth more fairly.
    • Act in the interests of future generations.
    • Change how you measure progress, value well-being and nature over financial growth.
    • Engage citizens about what really matters in society…most don’t read papers and books on our planet’s dilemmas.
    • Send unequivocal signals to markets on long-term commitment and investment transformation.
    • Join the movements and do what you can in your own life.
    • Vote for politicians who value the future.
    • Start conversations and efforts in how our global society and planet can be improved.
    • The need for meaningful feedback loops has already been mentioned but bears repeating. These are needed to measure progress and adjust as needed to achieve priorities and goals.
    • Finally, as feedback is received, adjust actions as needed to achieve the stated priorities and goals.

One of the most salient, simple, and summarized rules for a healthy built-natural environment is from Donella Meadows, et al. (1972), and this still speaks true today.

  1. Renewable resources should be used no faster than they can regenerate.
  2. Pollution and wastes shall not be put into the environment faster than the environment can recycle them or render them harmless.
  3. Non-renewable resources shall not be used at all, and renewable substitutes should be developed.
  4. The human population and the physical capital plant must be kept at levels low enough to meet the first three conditions.
  5. The previous four conditions must be met through processes that are democratic and equitable enough that people will stand for them.

In theory, the United Nations seems the right governance body to lead this work. The UN’s work is meaningful to our global society and planetary ecosystem, including 17 ambitious sustainability goals developed in 2015. These goals were targeted to be accomplished by 2030 and some progress has been made (United Nations, 2022, 2023). These goals are:

  1. No poverty
  2. Zero hunger
  3. Good health and well-being
  4. Quality education
  5. Gender equality
  6. Clean water and sanitation
  7. Affordable and clean energy
  8. Decent work and economic growth
  9. Industry innovation and infrastructure
  10. Reduced inequalities
  11. Sustainable cities and communities
  12. Responsible consumption and production
  13. Climate action
  14. Life below water
  15. Life on land
  16. Peace, justice, and strong institutions
  17. Partnerships for the goals

However, the UN (by design) lacks the authority to bring all nations in line with what is needed, and it is a fantasy to believe otherwise (e.g., United Nations, 2022). Thus, it is an open question whether the myriad efforts currently underway will succeed in mitigating the growing impacts on our global society and ecosystem or whether a new form of governance should be developed. Will each country rise to the occasion (Searcey, 2022; Office of Science and Technology Policy, 2022; Greenfield, 2022; Frazen, 2022; Meyer 2022)? Will companies force the needed change (Weston, 2022; Schneider Electric, 2022; World Economic Forum, 2022)? Will we find common ground and work together to resolve our collective issues (Sarkar, 2019)? Will people around the world force and guide us, from the ground up, to a more sustainable built-natural environment (Meadows, 1994; Wahl, 2020)? What is fair and equitable responsibility (for example, Ghosh et al., 2022)? How will the public and private sectors work together in resolving this existential crisis? These are all critical but unanswered questions. As it is, efforts are largely fragmented while many are doing the best they can.

There is a lot of work to be done, individually, societally, and globally. The simple and unavoidable truth is that whatever the future holds, we will succeed or fail together.

There are no separate systems. The world is a continuum. Where to draw a boundary around a system depends on the purpose of the discussion.

—Donella Meadows

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