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We Will Succeed or Fail—Together: caring for our built-natural environment (Part 3 The Future: Some Background for Program Management)

13 Saturday May 2023

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The world is overwhelmingly short-term focused, and no one really knows what the future holds as the global built-natural environment evolves. It likely will be more or less recognizable compared to today. Many of us, but not all, have enjoyed living in a high-quality built environment/standard of living while our natural environment has degraded, largely unnoticed by many. Changes to our built-natural environment will likely not happen quickly but over decades, centuries, and millennia (if this isn’t considered quickly, which is a relative term). During this time, our built-natural environment is poised for significant change, some for the worse and hopefully some for the better (World Economic Forum, 2023). There is also the Doomsday Clock, originally established with the involvement of Albert Einstein to approximate humanity’s end from nuclear weapons. It has since been expanded to include other threats, and that clock keeps moving forward toward midnight (Weise, 2023a). There are also dire predictions from credible sources and acknowledgment that it is too late to fully prevent the resulting impacts (Jazeera, 2023, Ripple et al., 2023; Sumata, 2023). These predictions include ones from a Nobel Peace Prize-winning collection of scientists and perhaps the greatest group of scientists ever assembled—the International Governmental Panel on Climate Change or IPCC (2023). The press has highlighted this report (e.g., 9News, 2023; Borenstein and Jordans, 2023; Rice and Pulver, 2023). Others forecast variations on this future, but they are not substantially different (Barrage and Nordhaus, 2023; Watts, 2023; van der Wijst et al., 2023). These are in addition to the prescient 1972 Limits to Growth projections (Meadows et al., 1972), updates and various off-shoot initiatives (Bardi and Pereira, 2022; Herrington 2022), and myriad associated efforts (We Don’t Have Time, nd) that have precipitated this four-part series. There are also more optimistic outlooks based on currently available technologies (Weise, 2023b). Although somewhat dated, one study found that not one of 150 countries meets basic needs of its citizens at a globally sustainable level of resource use (O’Neill et al., 2018). An interesting link is also provided with this citation (O’Neill et al., 2018) that provides a comparison of various resource usage for these 150 countries. Ultimately, no one precisely knows what the future holds, although the facts and trend lines of the risks to our global society, economy, and built and natural environments appear indisputable. Thus, it may be best to view these various scenarios within a “cone of possibilities” while planning and preparing for the worst.

Some projections are that sea level will rise 12 inches by 2050 (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2022a). That’s less than 27 years from now. Ten percent of the world’s population live in coastal areas less than 32 feet above sea level (Bressan, 2021), 267 million are less than six feet above sea level, 44 percent live within about 90 miles of the coast, and eight of the ten largest cities in the world are near a coast (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2022b). This does not consider more intense storms (marine and terrestrial) from increased heat in the oceans and the atmosphere. Biodiversity extinction continues at alarming rates (70 percent of wildlife is already lost). That diversity is the basis of a healthy planetary ecosystem for all living things, including humans.

Biodiversity encompasses the living nature in all its variety. It provides many services, including climate regulation, pollination and soil formation, decomposing wastes, provision of raw materials, and contributions to our mental and physical well-being. There are three dimensions to biodiversity: ecosystems, species, and genetics. More than 90% of biodiversity loss is caused by five drivers: land degradation and habitat destruction, resource (over) exploitation, climate change, pollution, and invasive species.”

Avice-Hyet and Petit, 2023

It’s hard to estimate other high risks, including continuing wars such as in Ukraine. The coming decade will largely find whether we will succeed or fail in maintaining a quality, built-natural environment for all within a healthy global ecosystem.

Politics may seem real (and it has a definite impact on our lives, positive and negative), but it’s not reality even though it feels like it since we’ve all been raised within economic and societal systems.  The natural environment is the base reality of a livable built-natural environment including the natural resources we need to have quality lives (clean air, clean water, clean food, etc.).

Ultimately, “Mother Nature” holds the “trump card,” while the built environment and the natural resources we need will pay the price financially, economically, quality of life, and extinction of species, potentially including ourselves. Even the rich are subject to Mother Nature’s laws and behaviors. While they may be able to protect themselves from her ravages for a while, eventually, she will impact them as she has the most vulnerable. (Jazeera, 2022).

Our world is approaching a mass extinction of nature, similar to those caused by the asteroid that slammed into the Gulf of Mexico 66 million years ago, ending the Cretaceous period and the age of dinosaurs. The asteroid wiped out 75% of all life on Earth. The difference this time is that slow-motion destruction is still progressing right before our human eyes (Ramanujan, 2021). The net consequences for nature, including humans, could be catastrophic given time and events unless we take them seriously.  (Cowie et al., 2022; Dryden and Duncan, 2022; Greenfield, 2023; Greshko, 2021; McGuigan, 2022). Understanding both the physical and social tipping points is critical to mitigate and avoid the worst impacts (National Academies, 2023b). One intriguing book recently released explores the contribution of social sciences in conservation and conserving biodiversity (Miller et al, 2023). A better understanding is essential considering the central role humans are playing in the Anthropocene Epoch and degradation of our global ecosystem (McCoy, 2023). Moreover, nature will help us save the planet if we let it (Carew, 2023).

The central challenge is for us as humans is to see ourselves as part of the natural world, not separate or superior to it (Figure 4). There is hope and movement in a recent initiative called the Well Being Economy Governments Partnership (Meredith, 2023). This effort seems to be growing and is one to watch. It was stunning that the President of Ireland, Michael D. Higgins, recently condemned the obsession with economic growth and urged the country to rebalance the economy, ecology, and ethics (Leahy, 2023). Valuing various aspects of nature, such as infrastructure, continues (The Editors, 2023). There are also many other ideas and efforts underway. Some of which are Reuters (2023), Rotterdam School of Management (2020), Savini (2022), Stanway (2023), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Program Engineering with Nature (U. S. Army Corps of Engineers, n.d.), National Academies (2022), and United Nations (2023b). This does not exclude the vast number of other efforts underway (e.g., Puko, 2023). The European Union has recently established sustainability rules that will require more rigorous reporting by companies around the world (Holger, 2023). Recently, the small Pacific Island country of Vanuatu is poised to gain UN approval to seek an unprecedented legal opinion from The Hague on what obligation countries have to combat climate change (Freedman, 2023). This is another aspect to watch for how it develops. With my background in transportation, it is appropriate to give a nod to the myriad efforts in that venue (Khatib, 2023). Technology advances are also in the mix (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2023c). It is also encouraging to see other system integration efforts, in this case, the integration of ecosystem health and public health (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2023a). After all, we are all dependent on a healthy ecosystem.

Figure 4. Humans superior to or separate from versus a part of the natural world. (Source: Hans Lak LinkedIn post 11-21-2022)

While the science behind how and how quickly our global ecosystem will change is not precise, the risks could not be higher in dismissing the timing or severity of these changes. While world-class scientists have overwhelming evidence of the impacts and how to mitigate them (United Nations Thailand, 2023, World Economic Forum, 2022, 2023), we cannot become seduced into ignoring or reducing the urgency of arguments on the precision (Bailey, 2023) of what can be done to mitigate the greatest impacts, or outright misinformation and denials (Banerjee et al., 2021). Others, including banks (Kusnetz, 2023), have not sufficiently moved toward a more sustainable built-natural environment. Inadequate action will only increase the risks. There are confounding features of our global environment, such as net growth of Antarctic Sea ice, that has yet to be explained and appears to be acting differently than the Arctic relative to global warming (Blanchard-Wrigglesworth et al., 2022; Antarctica Journal, 2023; NASA Earth Observatory n.d.; Parkinson, 2019). This does not mean that global warming is not real, but it does point out we have a lot to understand.

Planet Earth has one global ecosystem that contains a subordinate human global society and economy. In protecting our planet Earth, re-ordering our human systems to be compatible with nature, and changing hearts and minds, we will succeed or fail—together. (Gergis, 2022; Watts, 2022).

In one final thought, I have recently realized that there is an inextricable link between the existential threats of balancing truly sustainable built-natural environments and of castes in the United States and around the world (Bakewell-Stone, 2021; Wilkerson, 2020)—a planetary crisis. Over the next 20 years, we are going to encounter a “karmic moment of truth” as to how we collectively determine the quality and direction of our world society, built, and natural environments (Isabel Wilkerson interview of 2-13-2023 on The Last Word news broadcast with Lawrence O’Donnell; World Economic Forum, 2023; Vespa, 2020). We must become a real pluralistic society in the United States and globally. Diversity in nature and humanity is the default, not a monoculture. Diversity provides deeper, more flexible, more resilient, and ultimately stronger systems.

In a world without caste, being male or female, light or dark, immigrant or native-born, would have no bearing on what anyone was perceived as being capable of. In a world without caste, we would all be invested in the well-being of others in our species if only for our own survival, and recognize that we are in need of one another more than we have been led to believe. We would join forces with indigenous people around the world raising the alarm as fires rage and glaciers melt. We would see that, when others suffer, the collective human body is set back from the progression of our species. A world without caste would set everyone free.”

Wilkerson, 2020

It is the human species that has fashioned the world in which we live, and the trends we have created. Likewise, our responsibility is to solve our built-natural environment challenges while resolving our caste issues. The United Nations (2023a, 2023b, 2023c), and many others have stoked, advocated, and advanced needed change. Still, “The 2020s will be remembered as the decade that determined the fate of humanity. We can each choose to be part of the critical mass that will change the world. And when we do, it will bring profound meaning and purpose to our lives.” (Lohan, 2023; Gergis, 2023).

Wisdom is knowing that you know nothing.”

—Socrates 399 B.C., from ‘Plato’s Apology’ (my simple interpretation: to have the humility for continuous learning and changing your thinking)

Let’s face it, the universe is messy. It is nonlinear, turbulent, and chaotic. It is dynamic. It spends its time in transient behavior on its way to somewhere else, not in mathematically neat equilibria. It self-organizes and evolves. It creates diversity, not uniformity. That’s what makes the world interesting, that’s what makes it beautiful, and that’s what makes it work.” 

—Donella Meadows

If all mankind were to disappear, the world would regenerate back to the rich state of equilibrium that existed ten thousand years ago. If insects were to vanish, the environment would collapse into chaos.” 

—Edward O. Wilson

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World Economic Forum. (2023, March 21).World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2023, Davos. World Economic Forum. Retrieved April 30, 2023, from https://www.weforum.org/events/world-economic-forum-annual-meeting-2023

We will Succeed or Fail—Together: caring for our built-natural environment (Part 2 A Systems Approach and Tenants for a Path Forward: Some Background for Program Management)

02 Sunday Apr 2023

Posted by in Biological Diversity, Built Environment, Business Transformation, Clean Energy, Climate, Collaboration, Communications, Construction, Economics, Economy, Education, Empowering Women, Environment, Environmental Justice, Extinction of Species, Feedback Loops, Future, Governance, Government & Policy, Growth, Homo sapiens, Human Rights, Inequality, Infrastructure, Investing, Leadership, Learning and Success, Natural Environment, Partnerships and Collaboration, Performance Measurement and Management, Planning, Polarization, Poverty, Program Management, Project Management, Recycling, Relationships, Resilience, Results, Risks, Social Justice and Equity, Society, Strategic Planning, Sustainability, Systems Thinking, Tipping Ponts, Transportation, Turn-arounds, Wealth, Well-being

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There are a lot of systems thinkers but two are among my favorites:

  • Edward O. Wilson, a world-renowned scientist of the natural environment (Wilson, 1998, 2012, 2014, 2016, and many others not reflected in this blog)
  • Robert Prieto, a world-renowned engineer of the built environment (Prieto, 2008, 2015, 2017, 2020, 2022a, 2022b, and many others not reflected in this blog)

Another favorite of mine is Donella Meadows’ Thinking in Systems (2008) a sustainability-focused book and one of the original 1972 The limits to Growth authors. Many others are actively addressing the fundamentals of improving our built-natural environment.

There are also other systems thinking efforts toward more holistic thinking underway. It is encouraging to see efforts on valuing nature, such as a recent agreement by the United States and Australia (Chung, 2022)  and others (MacEacheran, 2022; Well Being Economy Alliance, n.d.). Two of the more significant efforts toward more holistic thinking include the National Academies (2022) report with recommendations on taking a systems approach toward a better understanding of the built-natural environment and Gaya Herrington’s (2022) book on five insights from a relook at the original Limits to Growth model which confirmed the original 1972 trend lines. I am especially struck by the latter’s objectivity and clarity. In sum, her five insights are:

  1. We are connected, and acting like we are not has led us to the brink of collapse.
  2. Growth is not a good goal. In fact, it is the cause of society’s problems.
  3. We need to fundamentally change society’s priorities if we want to avoid significant declines in our current levels of well-being.
  4. Time is of the essence to make this change.
  5. The end of the growth pursuit does not mean the end of progress, quite the opposite.

Tenants of a path forward:

I have tried to establish this list of tenants which will be needed to engage the challenges of global growth in a meaningful and productive way.

  1. A good faith effort must be made by all, or at least a majority, to avoid the tipping points, which could last centuries if not millennia (Dixon-Declève et al., 2022).
  2. A clear and straightforward focus must be developed to bring these challenges to the attention of the public. The lack of a clear focus, in fact, may be part of the problem in engaging our global society in an acutely focused direction forward rather than for narrow scientific, engineering, or other interests. This is a very difficult task. The world is now replete with conferences, meetings, books, publications, and other venues on a path forward before it is too late. This collection of venues is so vast it is virtually impossible to stay up with, much less digest.
  3. A clear strategy and planning are needed to substantially manage positive and negative risks. Some are asserted by Dixon-Declève et al. (2022) as follows:
    • Ending poverty
    • Addressing gross inequality (Copley, 2022; Gleick, 2021)
    • Empowering women
    • Making food healthy for people and ecosystems
    • Transitioning to clean energy
  4. A program management approach is needed. A program involves interrelated projects combined with a systems approach. The extra investment required to build a more resilient civilization is estimated at two to four percent of global income per year for sustainable energy and food security alone. These “turnarounds” will surely be disruptive, and the likelihood of occurring is not high (Dixon-Declève, et al., 2022).
  5. Priorities must be made. This will be neither clear nor simple, but I would suggest a good starting point is Herrington’s Figure 32 titled “Finance system within ecosystem, stable versus fragile” (Herrington, 2022). I might suggest calling this figure “Herrington’s Hierarchy of our Planet.” This is no great surprise since we all live within our planet’s natural ecosystem.
  6. Meaningful metrics must be developed. I say meaningful because everything that can be measured is not important, and everything important cannot be easily measured. Recently, NASA space satellites are tracking 50 super emitters around the world (Greicius, 2023; Hartono, 2022).  Some metrics being used are not accurate and therefore misleading and not very meaningful to developing a sustainable built-natural environment (Elgin and Rangarajan, 2022; Boudreau, 2022). This is highly problematic. Still, accurate and meaningful metrics on the health of our natural environment must be weighted equally, or higher, to the built environment on which it depends. They must reflect reality, not wrong, misleading, or inaccurate metrics that only make the task more difficult, if not impossible. This also includes a standard definition and understanding of terms (Jones, 2022; Savini, 2022).
  7. Above all, action must be taken in conjunction with feedback loops to measure progress and enable adjustments to align the way. Without action, it is just a lot of talk. Dixon-Declève et al (2022) provide a pretty common sense list of actions for our future which I have adapted.
    • Reduce polarization.
    • Share wealth more fairly.
    • Act in the interests of future generations.
    • Change how you measure progress, value well-being and nature over financial growth.
    • Engage citizens about what really matters in society…most don’t read papers and books on our planet’s dilemmas.
    • Send unequivocal signals to markets on long-term commitment and investment transformation.
    • Join the movements and do what you can in your own life.
    • Vote for politicians who value the future.
    • Start conversations and efforts in how our global society and planet can be improved.
    • The need for meaningful feedback loops has already been mentioned but bears repeating. These are needed to measure progress and adjust as needed to achieve priorities and goals.
    • Finally, as feedback is received, adjust actions as needed to achieve the stated priorities and goals.

One of the most salient, simple, and summarized rules for a healthy built-natural environment is from Donella Meadows, et al. (1972), and this still speaks true today.

  1. Renewable resources should be used no faster than they can regenerate.
  2. Pollution and wastes shall not be put into the environment faster than the environment can recycle them or render them harmless.
  3. Non-renewable resources shall not be used at all, and renewable substitutes should be developed.
  4. The human population and the physical capital plant must be kept at levels low enough to meet the first three conditions.
  5. The previous four conditions must be met through processes that are democratic and equitable enough that people will stand for them.

In theory, the United Nations seems the right governance body to lead this work. The UN’s work is meaningful to our global society and planetary ecosystem, including 17 ambitious sustainability goals developed in 2015. These goals were targeted to be accomplished by 2030 and some progress has been made (United Nations, 2022, 2023). These goals are:

  1. No poverty
  2. Zero hunger
  3. Good health and well-being
  4. Quality education
  5. Gender equality
  6. Clean water and sanitation
  7. Affordable and clean energy
  8. Decent work and economic growth
  9. Industry innovation and infrastructure
  10. Reduced inequalities
  11. Sustainable cities and communities
  12. Responsible consumption and production
  13. Climate action
  14. Life below water
  15. Life on land
  16. Peace, justice, and strong institutions
  17. Partnerships for the goals

However, the UN (by design) lacks the authority to bring all nations in line with what is needed, and it is a fantasy to believe otherwise (e.g., United Nations, 2022). Thus, it is an open question whether the myriad efforts currently underway will succeed in mitigating the growing impacts on our global society and ecosystem or whether a new form of governance should be developed. Will each country rise to the occasion (Searcey, 2022; Office of Science and Technology Policy, 2022; Greenfield, 2022; Frazen, 2022; Meyer 2022)? Will companies force the needed change (Weston, 2022; Schneider Electric, 2022; World Economic Forum, 2022)? Will we find common ground and work together to resolve our collective issues (Sarkar, 2019)? Will people around the world force and guide us, from the ground up, to a more sustainable built-natural environment (Meadows, 1994; Wahl, 2020)? What is fair and equitable responsibility (for example, Ghosh et al., 2022)? How will the public and private sectors work together in resolving this existential crisis? These are all critical but unanswered questions. As it is, efforts are largely fragmented while many are doing the best they can.

There is a lot of work to be done, individually, societally, and globally. The simple and unavoidable truth is that whatever the future holds, we will succeed or fail together.

There are no separate systems. The world is a continuum. Where to draw a boundary around a system depends on the purpose of the discussion.

—Donella Meadows

Literature Cited

Boudreau, C. (2022, Dec 2). Qatar promised a carbon-neutral World Cup. Climate advocates call that pledge misleading. Business Insider India. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://www-businessinsider-in.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.businessinsider.in/international/news/qatar-promised-a-carbon-neutral-world-cup-climate-advocates-call-that-pledge-misleading-/amp_articleshow/95923047.cms

Chung, L. (2022, December 16). US, Australia sign pact to measure environment’s economic value. The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://www.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/us-australia-sign-pact-to-measure-environment-s-economic-value-20221215-p5c6lz.html

Copley, M. (2022, November 9). Investors have trillions to fight climate change. Developing nations get little of it. NPR. Retrieved April 1, 2023 from https://www.npr.org/2022/11/09/1134865038/investors-have-trillions-to-fight-climate-change-developing-nations-get-little-o

Dixon-Declève, S., W. Gaffney, J. Ghosh, J. Randers, J. Rockström, P. Espen Stoknes. (2022). Earth for All: a survival guide for humanity, New Society Publishers, Canada.

Electric, S. (2022, October 20). Walmart, Ørsted, and Schneider Electric Announce First Cohort for Renewable Energy Supply Chain Program: Gigaton PPA. Yahoo Finance. https://finance-yahoo-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/walmart-rsted-schneider-electric-announce-132000165.html

Elgin, B. & Rangarajan, S. (2022, November 1). What Really Happens When Emissions Vanish? Bloomberg. Retrieved April 2, 2023 from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-11-01/intel-p-g-cisco-among-major-companies-exaggerating-climate-progress?utm_campaign=news&utm_medium=bd&utm_source=applenews&leadSource=uverify%20wall

Frazin, R. (2022, November 5). Four issues to watch at the COP27 global climate summit. The Hill. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/3720366-four-issues-to-watch-at-the-cop27-global-climate-summit/

Ghosh, J., S. Chakraborty, A. Sucar Diaz Ceballos, A. Ibnat Jamilee Adiba. (2022). A just transition: how can we fairly assign climate responsibility? Earth for All. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://www.clubofrome.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Earth4All_Deep_Dive_Ghosh.pdf

Gleick, P. (2021, August 25). The climate crisis will create two classes: those who can flee, and those who cannot. The Guardian. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/07/global-heating-climate-crisis-heat-two-classes?CMP=oth_b-aplnews_d-1

Greenfield, P. (2022, November 5). Brazil, Indonesia and DRC in talks to form ‘Opec of rainforests.’ Brazil | the Guardian. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/05/brazil-indonesia-drc-cop27-conservation-opec-rainforests-aoe

Greicius, T. (2023, February 3). NASA Space Missions Pinpoint Sources of CO2 Emissions on Earth. NASA. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/nasa-space-missions-pinpoint-sources-of-co2-emissions-on-earth

Hartono, N. (2022, October 25). Methane ‘Super-Emitters’ Mapped by NASA’s New Earth Space Mission. NASA.  Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/methane-super-emitters-mapped-by-nasa-s-new-earth-space-mission

Herrington, G. (2022). Five Insights for Avoiding Global Collapse: What a 50-Year-Old Model of the World Taught Me About a Way Forward for Us Today. Mdpi AG.

Jones, B. (2022, December 15). World leaders are racing to protect nature – but the definition of one word is tripping them up. Vox. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://www.vox.com/down-to-earth/2022/12/15/23508857/cop15-biodiversity-montreal-conservation-protected-areas

MacEacheran, M. (2022, November 1). Scotland could become first ‘rewilded’ nation—what does that mean? Travel. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://www.nationalgeographic.com/travel/article/scotland-could-become-first-rewilded-nation-what-does-that-mean

Meadows, D. H., D. L. Meadows, J. Randers, and W. W. Behrens III. (1972). The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome’s Project on the Predicament of Mankind. New York: Universe Books.

Meadows, D. H. (1994). Envisioning a Sustainable World. Third Biennial Meeting of the International Society for Ecological Economics. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from http://people.whitman.edu/~weilercs/biocomplexity/Meadows.pdf

Meadows, D. H. (2008). Thinking in Systems: A Primer. Chelsea Green Publishing.

Meyer, R. (2022, October 6). The Climate Economy Is About to Explode. The Atlantic. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2022/10/inflation-reduction-act-climate-economy/671659/

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2022). Next Generation Earth Systems Science at the National Science Foundation. The National Academies Press. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/26042/next-generation-earth-systems-science-at-the-national-science-foundation

Office of Science and Technology Policy. (2022, October 31). Framing the National Nature Assessment. Federal Register. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/10/31/2022-23593/framing-the-national-nature-assessment

Prieto, R. (2008). Strategic Program Management. Construction Management Association of America.

Prieto, R. (2015). Resilience: An Engineering & Construction Perspective. Lulu.com.

Prieto, R. (2017). Complexity in Large Engineering & Construction Programs. PM World Journal VI: XI. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://pmworldlibrary.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/pmwj64-Nov2017-Prieto-complexity-in-large-engineering-construction-programs.pdf

Prieto, R. (2020). Strategic Program Management: Key to “giga” Program Delivery. PM World Journal. IX: IX. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://pmworldlibrary.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/pmwj97-Sep2020-Prieto-strategic-program-management-key-to-giga-program-delivery-2nd-ed.pdf

Prieto, R. (2022a, September 12). Sustainability Utilizing a Program Management Approach. National Academy of Construction Executive Insights. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://www.naocon.org/wp-content/uploads/Sustainability-Utilizing-a-Program-Management-Approach.pdf

Prieto, R. (2022b, September 13). Climate Change – The Role of Program and Project Managers. ResearchGate. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/363752757

Sakar, C. (2019, November 12). The Ecosystem of Wicked Problems by Christian Sarkar. Global Peter Drucker Forum BLOG. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://www.druckerforum.org/blog/the-ecosystem-of-wicked-problems-by-christian-sarkar/

Savini, F. (2022, November 7). Post-growth, degrowth, the doughnut and circular economy: a short guide. Save the Planet Amateurs. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://planetamateur.com/2022/11/07/post-growth-degrowth-the-doughnut-and-circular-economy-a-short-guide/

Searcey, D., & Bashizi, A. (2022, November 10). Can a Nation Replace Its Oil Wealth With Trees? The New York Times. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://www-nytimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.nytimes.com/2022/11/03/climate/gabon-logging-oil-economy.amp.html

United Nations. (2020, September 19). Take Action for the Sustainable Development Goals – United Nations Sustainable Development. United Nations Sustainable Development. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals/

United Nations. (2022, October 26). Climate Plans Remain Insufficient: More Ambitious Action Needed Now. United Nations Climate Change. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://unfccc.int/news/climate-plans-remain-insufficient-more-ambitious-action-needed-now

United Nations. (2023). Global Sustainable Development Report. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Sustainable Development. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://sdgs.un.org/gsdr/gsdr2023

Wahl, D. C. (2020, February 12). Learning the art of communing. Age of Awareness – Medium. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://medium.com/age-of-awareness/learning-the-art-of-commoning-db7299470f49

Wellbeing Economy Alliance. (n.d.). For an Economy in Service. Wellbeing Economy Alliance. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://weall.org/

Weston, P. (2022, December 4). Businesses call for nature impact disclosures to be mandatory by 2030. Biodiversity | the Guardian. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.theguardian.com/environment/2022/oct/26/mandatory-disclosure-impact-nature-2030-cop15-aoe

Wilson, E. O. (1998). Consilience: the unity of knowledge. Alfred A. Knopf.

Wilson, E. O. (2012). The Social Conquest of Earth. W. W. Norton & Company.

Wilson, E. O. (2014). The Meaning of Human Existence. W. W. Norton & Company.

Wilson, E. O. (2016). Half-Earth: Our Planet’s Fight for Life. W. W. Norton & Company.

World Economic Forum. (2022, November 4). More than 100 CEOs and senior executives share an open letter for world leaders at COP27. World Economic Forum. Retrieved April 1, 2023, from https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/11/cop27-alliance-of-ceo-climate-leaders

We will Succeed or Fail—Together: caring for our built-natural environment (Part 1 Setting the Stage: Some background for Program Management)

26 Sunday Mar 2023

Posted by in Biological Diversity, Built Environment, Business Transformation, Clean Energy, Climate, Collaboration, Communications, Construction, Design, Economics, Economy, Education, Environment, Extinction of Species, Future, Government & Policy, Homo sapiens, Human Rights, Infrastructure, Investing, Leadership, Natural Environment, Partnerships and Collaboration, Planning, Program Management, Project Management, Recycling, Relationships, Resilience, Results, Risks, Society, Strategic Planning, Sustainability, Systems Thinking, Transportation, Trust

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I am in my eighth decade of existence and believe, rightly or wrongly, that I have gained some perspective on the arc of life on Planet Earth. I have been a part of our global society, and its development, through my years of local, state, national, and international experience in academia, engineering, construction, transportation, natural sciences, management, and leadership. I also enjoy building things of value, physically and metaphorically, in concert with the social, human-built, and natural environments. At my base, I consider myself a scientist, nature, and evidence-based from an early age, valuing the scientific method and, as more evidence comes forth, that conclusions may change. That is in stark contrast to the misinformation in our society today. I have lived a good life, enjoyed the natural world, and benefited from myriad developments. I am proud to have brought some built-natural environment perspective to mitigate, if not improve, our natural environment. These include recycling, asset management, environmental management, infrastructure development to reduce costs and environmental impacts, improvement of habitats and associated species outcomes, and the quality of people’s lives.  Unfortunately, they don’t count for much in the greater scheme of life. 

As our planet approaches a population of eight billion people (Davies, 2022) (there were about 2.5 billion in 1950 when I was born), I am reminded of the “carrying capacity” (Odom, 1971) which is familiar to ecologists, farmers, ranchers, and conservationists. That is, there is a limit to the number of individuals a habitat, including our global habitat, can sustain. Moreover, risks are growing (World Economic Forum, 2022; Wallace-Wells, 2017; Pulver and Rice, 2022). It is virtually impossible to deny the influence human beings have had on the world, even to the point of creating a new geologic epoch, the Anthropocene (Brondizio et al., 2016).

I do not recall a time as now with as much attention to our natural environment since the days of Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring in 1962, the United Nations convening the first Earth Summit (the UN Conference on the Human Environment) in 1972, and the Limits to Growth in 1972. There are myriad efforts that have developed: Global Project Management (2023) and myriad series stemming from the 50th Anniversary of the Limits to Growth such as:

50th Anniversary of ‘The Limits to Growth’ Seminar Series (PDF)

We Don’t Have Time: “The 1.5°C Business Playbook: your company’s roadmap for exponential climate action”

National Academies: “Climate Conversations: Tipping Points”

I reviewed some of these growing built-natural environment issues in a series of previous blogs entitled “The Mobility Ecosystem: the changing landscape and need for fresh, new ideas” (www.leadershipintransportation.com).

I was shocked to learn that the “Lungs of the Earth” (aka the vast Amazon Rain Forest) has reversed behavior. For the first time in its existence, the Amazon now emits more CO2 than it absorbs due to large-scale human disturbances such as land clearing (Gatti et al., 2021; McCoy, 2022). This is in addition to continuing degradation and destruction of the Amazon (Watts, 2022). We are also living in the sixth mass extinction of life on earth, partially because of our encroachment into wildlife habitats, and 2020 brought us a pandemic that completely disrupted our global society (Tollefson, 2020).

The efforts this past year are truly remarkable. Initiated partly by a review of the original 1972 Limits to Growth computer model in the book Limits and Beyond: 50 years on from The Limits to Growth. What did we learn, and what’s next” (Bardi and Alvarez, 2022). These efforts include a host of books, articles, webinars, conferences, and other venues on the subject of saving our planet. The 1972 Limits to Growth is still prescient 50 years later, not in details but in major trends.

Some other eclectic and seemingly disparate books have also influenced my thinking this past year, including Five Insights for Avoiding Global Collapse (Herrington, 2022), Earth for All: a survival guide for humanity (Dixon-Decleve et al., 2022), How to be a Stoic (Pigliucci, 2017), The Emperors Handbook (by Marcus Aurelius a translation by Scott and Hicks, 2002), The Standard for Project Management (Project Management Institute, 2021), and The Standard for Program Management (Project Management Institute, 2017). These readings, and others, set the basis for this writing. I have tried to write this to expand program and project managers’ thinking and perspectives as they are in a somewhat unique position to mitigate, if not improve, our built-natural environments. Prieto (2022a) provides another, more detailed discussion of the role of program and project managers in the climate change arena.

While I perused the book The Limits to Growth (Meadows et al., 1972) as an undergraduate and graduate student, I did not fully recognize its relevance.

Now, I find myself increasingly reflecting on what has gone before and what the future will look like.

Simplicity is appropriate, even though the “devil is in the details,” in explaining inherently complex subjects, and I could find no better simple description, vice describing in words, than the figures depicting our natural-built environment challenges, existential and otherwise, as in Herrington’s book (2022). There is another good figure depicting this subject entitled “Integration of Natural Capital and Economic Capital” (Figure 1) found on the inside back cover of Odom and Barrett (2005).

FIGURE 1. Integration of Natural Capital and Economic Capital (from Odom and Barrett, 2005).

Figure 2 reflects the hierarchy of needs for our planetary existence and the fragility of life on earth if nature is relegated to the lowest priority. This has some similarities to Maslow’s well-known hierarchy of needs and human motivation to have a stable and successful life (Maslow 1943).

Figure 2. The hierarchy of needs for our planetary existence. The natural environment is what sustains life and our global society. Relegating the natural environment to the lowest priority results in a fragile ecosystem and risks global human societal existence. (Adapted from Herrington, 2022)

Money is perhaps human history’s most successful shared fiction (Goldstein, 2020). We have all been raised in an economic framework, so it feels real, but the capitalist narrative underlying our economic system is purely a human invention, which becomes clear as we replace the issues surrounding this human invention with a purely physical one, such as a threat, disease, injury, or death. In other words, the natural system is what is real and it sometimes takes a traumatic event for us to reset, or see more clearly, our priorities toward life and its attendant features (family, friends, other living things, and generally enjoying what is otherwise a short human life).

In recent decades, there have been increasing efforts to address these built-natural environment challenges and dilemmas. These include environmental laws and regulations, recycling, sustainability, ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) programs and approaches in our society in general but also in the economic and investing arenas (e.g. Fink, 2022). These efforts are all worthwhile but it is difficult, if not impossible, to ascertain whether these largely unintentionally fragmented efforts have substantial impacts toward a more balanced built-natural environment, or if they are even measuring real impacts (Catanoso, 2022), sometimes referred to as “green-washing” (Robinson, 2022). These efforts are also not without pushback in our crazy political world (Toppe, 2022; Beals, 2023; Ramsey, 2023). ESG risks in engineering and construction must also be considered (Prieto, 2022b,  2023). Another aspect is whether our built environment will bend or break while sustaining our underlying natural environment (Woetzel et al., 2020).

I believe that our current challenges require systems thinking and a program management approach (Prieto, 2021;  Project Management Institute, 2022a, 2022b). Program management is a collection of projects with a common interrelationship. What could have more interconnected relationships than our global built-natural environment?

This four-part series is not meant to be comprehensive, a prediction of the future, or a doomsday. Events are moving rapidly so this series may be lagging but the central themes remain the same. It is meant as a very broad review of our current planetary situation. What I know with certainty is that we will succeed or fail in caring for our planet—together. It is our common mother ship.

“We can’t impose our will on a system. We can listen to what the system tells us, and discover how its properties and our values can work together to bring forth something much better than could ever be produced by our will alone.”
—Donella Meadows

Literature Cited

Aurelius, M. (2002). The Emperor’s Handbook: A New Translation of The Meditations. Simon and Schuster.

Bardi, U., & Pereira, C. Á. (2022). Limits and beyond: 50 years on from the limits to growth, what did we learn and what’s next?: A report to the Club of Rome. Exapt Press.

Beal, R.K. (2023, January 23). Climate investing is ‘a matter of value, not values,’ says State Street’s O’Hanley. MarketWatch. Retrieved March 26, 2023, from https://www.marketwatch.com/story/climate-investing-is-a-matter-of-value-not-values-says-state-streets-ohanley-11674497141

Brondizio, E. S., O’Brien, K. F. a. R., Bai, X., Biermann, F., Steffen, W., Berkhout, F., Cudennec, C., Lemos, M. C., Wolfe, A. P., Palma-Oliveira, J. M., & Chen, C. (2016). Re-conceptualizing the Anthropocene: A call for collaboration. Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions, 39, 318–327. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.02.006

Carson, R. (1962). Silent Spring. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.

Catanoso, J. (2022, December 23). The Netherlands to stop paying subsidies to ‘untruthful’ biomass firms. Mongabay. Retrieved March 26, 2023, from https://news.mongabay.com/2022/12/the-netherlands-decides-to-stop-paying-subsidies-to-untruthful-biomass-firms/

Davies, L. (2022, October 19). UN warns against alarmism as world’s population reaches 8bn milestone. Global Development | the Guardian. Retrieved March 26, 2023, from https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/oct/18/global-population-growth-8-billion-unfdp-united-nations-warning-alarmism

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Gatti, L.V., L.S. Basso, J.B. Miller, M. Gloor, L.G. Domingues, H.L.G. Cassol, G. Tejada, L.E.O.C. Aragão, C. Nobre, W. Peters, L. Marani, E. Arai, A.H. Sanches, S.M. Corrêa, L.A. Anderson, C. Von Randow, C.S.C. Correia, S.P. Crispim & R.A.L. Neves. (2021) Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change. Nature. 595: 388–93, 2021. Retrieved March 26, 2023, from https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03629-6

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Program and Project Management: Three Questions

12 Wednesday Oct 2022

Posted by in Leadership, Program Management, Project Management, Relationships, Trust

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In program and project management, likely in all areas of leadership and management, there are three key questions to ask. This is especially true when coming in as a new project manager, from outside, or as a turn-around agent. There are of course other records and documents that should be reviewed and placed into context with these three questions. Ask these questions in a one-on-one situation, if at all possible, and state at the beginning that these conversations are confidential, and outcomes are non-attributional. Simply listening to what people have to say (use active listening) expresses the courtesy of people’s time and attention and reinforces their value. Trust is the essential element to get honest feedback and is the beginning of the development of strong and trusting relationships which is the “grease” that will help everything else work well. If these conversations cannot be done one-on-one, then do these in small groups of perhaps 5-15. More than five reduces the intimacy of the conversation and tends to limit honest feedback so keep the groups as small as possible. In an effort to obtain honest feedback that people are not comfortable providing in a group, tell the group that you will stay behind for up to an hour if someone wants a more private conversation. Of course, maintain an “open door policy” as well. Typically, I would limit this feedback to three topics or responses in the interest of time. While establishing this feedback in this manner is key at the beginning, it should be conducted periodically throughout the life of the program, project, enterprise, or organization. It is a key to good leadership and the feedback that can be obtained is literally more valuable than gold.

In my experience, these questions should be asked of a cross-section of all stakeholders within a program or project. This might include subordinates, contemporaries, superiors, external partners and stakeholders, clients, and past team members such as prior program or project managers. This feedback is the “breakfast of champions” if you listen. You will also likely begin to identify trends and alignment of issues that will help to prioritize them.

The program or project manager should also filter this feedback through his or her own experience as all feedback is not necessarily meaningful, productive, or actionable. Still, keep this feedback as it is not always actionable or it may be actionable in the near-term, long-term, or as things change. In the end, the program or project manager must assess the feedback, prioritize it, and determine next steps. Next steps might include further analysis, integration into existing plans, development of new plans, or placing the feedback on-hold with no current action necessary or desired. Of course, there are many other options. The key throughout is that the program or project manager acknowledge their appreciation for this feedback, thank people for their feedback, reinforce their commitment to honor the confidentiality and non-attribution of the feedback, and to put the feedback into action as appropriate.

So, what are these questions?

Question 1. What’s going well?

This is not only a key question but a good ice breaker as there is little concern or risk in responding to this honestly.

Question 2. What’s not going well?

This is an essential question to understand what issues, challenges, or problems exist. The program or project manager, will as previously stated, need to assess this feedback to identify trends, alignment, and next steps. Getting honest feedback to this question is dependent on the level of trust that exists with the program or project manager. Without trust, it is not likely that meaningful feedback will be given. Regardless, utilize active listening and mutual respect, as you would with any other conversation. If nothing else, it is likely the people you are engaging will appreciate you asking the question, the courtesy of their time, and of your listening to what they have to say. It will be the beginning of building stronger relationships.

Question 3. How can I help?

This is perhaps the most pointed and key question as this is an opportunity for people to guide the program or project manager to what is the highest priority for their time or what is most urgently needed. If you listen, people will tell you what you need to do. Of course, you need to put this in the context of your own experience.

At the end of each of these one-on-one or small group conversations, thank people for their time and feedback.

So, why are these questions important? There are probably many reasons, but I will assert two. First, a program or project manager will not likely find everything they need to know in reports or documents and not everything that is important can be measured. Morale and other areas are examples of the latter. After all, we are a society and organizations of people, the most valuable asset of any program or project that a manager has. Second, this feedback will likely save time as you proactively seek the highest priority issues that you can impact. In general, I believe there is a 60-90 day window for many program or project managers, and other large organization leaders, to have their biggest impact. In this period, you are a set of new eyes, bringing new objectivity where it is likely needed. And, with an opportunity to build that critical trust and strong relationships that helps everything else work well.

The Mobility Ecosystem: the changing landscape and the need for fresh, new ideas (Part 13: Reimagining the Future)

14 Monday Jun 2021

Posted by in Business Transformation, Climate, Collaboration, Economy, Environment, Future, Infrastructure, Internet of Things or IoT, Leadership, Mobility, Mobility Ecosystem, Multimodal, Partnerships and Collaboration, Planning, Relationships, Safety, Society, Strategic Planning, Sustainability, Technology, Transportation, Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X), Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I)

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Reimagining the future will be neither quick or easy. Change is the only constant and that can be slow and difficult day-to-day work by teams of people working together. It starts with a well thought out vision, strategy, and holistic plan for the mobility ecosystem with performance metrics, defined roles and responsibilities to track progress. This is a dynamic, not a static, process and must be continually reassessed as change waits for no one. The elements discussed throughout this 13 part series must be incorporated and used to good purpose, especially engaging people through outreach, partnerships, consensus, and collaboration. The vision and strategy must give focus to balancing the built-natural environments—social, economic, and environmental health—and make those efforts sustainable. They are not mutually exclusive. In addition to the diversity, varied and essential disciplines that need to be involved, systems thinking must be used to see the big picture while knitting the individual disciplines and activities into one holistic effort that will accrue one safe, seamless, sustainable multimodal mobility ecosystem that serves the economy, society, environment, and people’s lives. The various existing and emerging technologies must be effectively leveraged to continue to do more with less in the process. Strategic partnerships must be established to leverage public-private strengths including consultants, construction contractors, data analytics, technology developers/providers such as artificial intelligence and machine learning, vehicle and other manufacturers, and others to mutual advantage (Howard, 2021). This will require leadership.

It is the hard day-to-day work that, over time, will result a mobility ecosystem that is sustainable, resilient, and seamlessly integrated into society, the economy, and environment to which we all aspire. Throughout the path ahead we need new, fresh ideas.

—Imagine a world where everything that can be connected is connected within the mobility ecosystem while improving and sustaining a healthy society, economy, environment, and people’s lives.

Citation

Howard, P.W. (2021, March 8). CEO ‘humbled’ to team up with top environmentalist as part of global team. Detroit Free Press. Retrieved June 12, 2021, from https://amp-freep-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.freep.com/amp/6921825002

The Mobility Ecosystem: the changing landscape and the need for fresh, new ideas (Part 12: A Look into the Future)

12 Saturday Jun 2021

Posted by in 5.9 GHz, 5G, Alternative Delivery, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Asset & Life Cycle Management, Augmented Reality (AR), Autonomous Vehicles, Batteries, Biological Diversity, Business Transformation, Clean Energy, Climate, Cloud Services, Collaboration, Communications, Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAV), COVID-19, Cyber-security, Design, Drones, Dynamic Transportation Management, Economics, Economy, Education, Electric Vehicles, Environment, Environmental Justice, Funding, Future, Gas-Fueled Vehicles, Government & Policy, History, Homo sapiens, Infrastructure, Intelligent Infrastructure, Intelligent Transportation Systems or ITS, Internet of Things or IoT, Interstate, Investing, Leadership, Lidar, Machine Control, Materials, Mobility, Mobility Ecosystem, Multimodal, Operations, Pandemic, Partnerships and Collaboration, Pedestrians, Planning, Relationships, Resilience, Results, Ride Sharing, Robotics, Safety, Social Justice and Equity, Society, Strategic Planning, Sustainability, Technology, Transportation, Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X), Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I), Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V), Virtual Reality (VR)

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To some extent, transportation, mobility, and its infrastructure has always been a bit of a “Rorschach test.” That is that everyone, at least every American, sees something different as to what it is, what it is supposed to do, and what they want. So it is little wonder that there is a challenge in developing a strategy, consensus, and alignment in an industry with increasing social, economic, and environmental aspects to address.

No one really knows what the future holds although there is merit in the statement that “the only way to determine the future is to invent it.” There is a premise by futurists that the future can be viewed as a “cone of possibilities” which seems a reasonable approach. A Buzz Feed internet article entitled “Futurists tell us the most amazing and scary things to expect in the future” was posted on Apple News December 3, 2020 (Spohr, 2020). Some of the future mobility is described as follows.

…thinking about BuzzFeed’s younger readers, many of whom will live to see calendar years even more mind-bogglingly futuristic, like 2080, 2090, and even 2100. What will life be like for them over the course of their lives? How many changes will they see over the next 10–80 years?

To find out, BuzzFeed connected with some of the world’s leading futurists and asked them to forecast what the years to come might bring. Here are their fascinating and thought-provoking insights:

Public transit will be radically different in the future — and traffic will be a thing of the past.

Twentieth century public transit will be replaced by private transportation in van-sized smaller vehicles and single-person pods, driving on roads that are rarely congested because everybody follows tools like Waze which work together with cities to stop too many cars bunching up in the same place before they get there.”

— Brad Templeton

Family road trips will be in self-driving recreational vehicles accessorized with robot assistants and food replicators.

Self-driving RVs will pick you up from your home and be pre-programmed to drive the route you chose (including parking themselves in the designated spaces in RV parks), and they’ll stop along the way at national parks…with reservations, of course. The RV will have internet-on-the-go to allow the kids to play computer games when the vehicle is in motion. The entertainment module will be tailored to the child’s age and interests so that you will never hear, ‘Are we there yet?’ The RVs will be equipped with food replicators, so if the parents don’t want to cook, they won’t have to. Robots will handle the setup and tear down, including making sure that the black water is flushed. All the family has to do is enjoy their time together on this all-inclusive holiday.”

— Joyce Gioia

There is increasingly speculation on the future, not to mention the impact of changing technologies  on skill sets and the need to re-educate the changing workforce (Shea, 2021; Michal, 2021). Even Warren Buffet was slow to recognize the important role of technology in our society (Gandel, 2021). The point, we must remain open to change otherwise we risk getting stuck (Hawrylack, 2021). This is a dynamic in human nature.

There are also studies and ideas that have been generated such as what should the future of the interstate highway system be? (The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine, 2018)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration or NASA innovations and products for space exploration have been adopted for use by our society. Most recently, NASAs 2020 Rover, a car sized vehicle has been developed along with a helicopter to learn more about the Martian planet (Adams, 2021). NASA developments will likely continue to add to our transportation-mobility arena and society as a whole.

While this series of blogs has dealt primarily with ground surface transportation and mobility, changes are afoot in other modes. For example, some airlines and investors are betting on electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOL) to replace helicopters (Subin, 2021; LeBeau, 2021). Many want an improved passenger rail system (Benson, 2021). The Elon Musk inspired Hyperloop is estimated to exceed speeds of over 700 miles per hour and there are companies around the world working to make this a reality. Still, there are technical and economic issues to overcome (Silic, 2021; Kim and McNabb, 2020). Musk has even asserted that while the California High Speed Rail costs exceed $68 billion, the Hyperloop could be built to span the same distance for $6 billion (Nicol, 2018). There is the topic of smart roads (Integrated Roadways, n.d.).

The only thing that is certain is that the transportation and mobility space is changing, and rapidly.

There are discussions, trends, and research on the departments of transportation of the future (Fuchs and Shehadeh, 2017), thinking beyond cars (Busch, 2017), automated drive-thru meals (Metz, 2021), need for greater equity (Lydersen, 2020), easing poverty (Korman, 2021), electrifying transportation for low income communities (Citizens Utility Board of Illinois, 2020),  data management (Center for Digital Government, 2020), big data to relieve congestion (Neumann, 2015), getting broadband across the United States and especially rural areas (Harrison, 2021), reducing traffic congestion and saving costs using AI and V2X (V2X=vehicle to everything) technologies (Carey, 2021), 5.9 GHz (Bhatt and Tymon, 2021), 5G (Fulton, 2021; Wachsman, 2021), smart roads and inductive charging (McFarland, 2021; Stout, 2020; Integrated Roadways, n.d.), cloud services for transportation agencies (AWS, n.d.; Silver, 2021; Matteson, 2021; Silver, n.d.), increasing citizen needs for digital technology in local governments (Schiavone, 2021; Rock Solid, n.d.; Pew Research Center, 2021), growth of micromobility (Miller, 2021), reimagine delivery with drones (Drone Delivery Canada, 2021), reinventing container shipping (Saxon and Stone, 2017), changing logistics (vanValkenburgh, 2021), renewed nature-based solutions (Miller and Huber, 2021), renewed emphasis on resiliency (Schmitz, 2021), increasing environmental issues (Teirstein, 2021; Woodyatt, 2020; Phillips, 2019; Irfan, 2019), how to rebuild America’s infrastructure (Della Rocca, et al, 2017), funding (Wehrman, 2021; Lombardo, 2021), bridging infrastructure gaps (Woetzel et al, 2016), private infrastructure financing (Budden, 2017; Parsons, 2021), new innovations in project financing, delivery, and public-private partnerships (U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highways Administration, 2021; Glazier, 2020), and many others. Others speculate on the future of mobility in cities (Harrouk, 2019), the future of autonomous vehicles in business (Gifford, 2017; Lamb, 2019), and an increasingly long line of public and private organizations committing to 100 percent electric vehicles in the next 10-20 years (Bascome, 2021), lessons in electric vehicle launches (Turkel, 2021), generator-equipped electronic vehicles (Morales, 2021), electric buses (Carroll, 2021), growing fleets of electric cabs (Lambert, 2021), electric delivery vehicles (Adams, 2021), electric heavy trucks (Reuters, 2021), design changes in electric vehicles (Korn, 2021), death of the gas-fueled vehicle (Hamza, 2021; Westbrook, 2020; van Lierop, 2020; Evannex, 2018; King, 2016), electronic vehicles will have 100% of the market by 2040 (Entrepreneur, 2021), the need for additional electric power production (Markets and Markets, 2020; Hull and Malik, 2021), new tools (Remix, 2021), some future implications of zero emission vehicles ( Robinson, 2021), expanded broadband (Pressgrove, 2021; McEwen, 2020), smart cities (Napolitano, et al, 2021), mundane mobility including sidewalks (Descant, 2021), fragility of the supply chain (Naughton and Colias, 2021; Ziady, 2021; Thorbecke, 2021), use of highway medians for other transportation purposes including monorail (Ohnsman, 2021), where Covid-19 has accelerated change (McKinsey & Company 2021), flying cars and driverless buses (Broom 2021),  continuing developments in mobility technology (Heineke, et al, 2019), and the need to view infrastructure as a system (Smith, 2020). For now in the transportation space, cities are becoming greener, climate change continues largely unabated, and the impacts of the Pandemic continue with an uncertain future (Baruchman, 2021; Ariza and Harris, 2021; EPA, n.d.; The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering Medicine, 2021; vanValkenburgh, 2021b; Frueh, 2021; Lowry, 2021). These are all legitimate forward-looking “think pieces”, products, and services and are needed.

It is also important to remember we live in one world with one global economy and environment (Shalal and Lawder, 2021; Whalen, 2021; Reuters Staff, 2021).

Some aspects of these futures and ideas may materialize but they are just that, speculations on what the future of mobility may look like. What the future holds will likely be messy and not simple (Putnam, 2021; Gifford, 2017). While it can be entertaining and thought-provoking to consider these futures, no one really knows what the future holds.

To emphasize that no one really can predict the future even though many have some basis, it is interesting to look back at some predictions made only a few years ago. For example, pre-2015 (Carroll, 2014; Eaves, 2007; Frey, 2008; Threewitt, 2012) and post-2015 which is closer to what we know now (Marsh & McLennan Agency, 2018; The National Express Transit, 2019; Mire, 2019; Cunningham, 2017; Thansis1997, 2018; Goodnet, 2016; Frey, 2021). To my surprise, there are even futurist schools (The Futurist Institute). And then there are the pundits speculating on the future of transportation stocks and companies that are disrupting the transportation industry (Whiteman, 2021; Sandre, 2017).

There is the issue of what long term effects the Covid-19 Pandemic will have on transportation, mobility, and freight (Furchtgott-Roth, 2021; Polzin and Choi, 2021; Goodman et al, 2021) and warning signs of a longer pandemic (Baker, 2021).

There is also the continuous drumbeat of the need for infrastructure investment (Landers, 2021; Infrastructure Report Card, 2021). I would add to this the need for social and environmental investment since they are not mutually exclusive.

Throughout this series of blogs there has been very little attention to other areas of the transportation and mobility space such the arena of logistics and supply chains which reflect the entire system through a freight lens.

Being somewhat simplistic, we know a few things with a very high level of certainty relative to the future of transportation and mobility:

  1. America’s transportation systems are long overdue for increased investment. As the new Biden Administration proposes massive funding initiatives for transportation infrastructure, technology will play a critical role in enabling a modernized, next-generation transportation system. A new reliable and sustainable funding model to replace the fuel tax is part of this.
  1. Autonomous, electric vehicles, V2V, V2I, V2X, adaptive traffic signals, electronic tolling/user fees, advanced machine learning, artificial intelligence, 5G, and asset management tools using the Internet of Things, will all be foundational building blocks of a modern system.
  1. A modernized system will combat climate change and meet constituents’ changing needs, including equity, social and environmental justice.
  1. These systems will require a fresh approach to how information is acquired, managed and analyzed as they require the processing of petabytes of data in real time. Cloud computing and edge computing will be part of this mix considering the enormous amount of data involved.

Many are looking, exploring, and building the future of mobility and transportation, it happens a piece at a time, and like other infrastructure and systems that society depends on, is sorely needed (The Commission on the Future of Mobility, 2021). The potential for information overload is a likely risk and part of this mix, as it is presently, and must be effectively dealt with (Sammer, 2021).

The interests and impacts of transportation and mobility are vast with far-reaching impacts to our society, the economy and environment. There is likely no one that is not impacted. Although what an average family spends on transportation can vary from 13 percent to 30 percent of their income depending on various factors to include income, a common percentage used is 16 cents of every dollar, and 93% of this goes to buying, maintaining, and operating cars, the largest expenditure after housing ( Elite Personal Finance, 2021; Cautero, 2021; ITDP, 2019; Financial Samurai, 2020; Miller, 2021; U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, n.d.; American Public Transportation Association, 2021).

This has been a broad, somewhat rambling, series through the mobility ecosystem and has not touched a great many areas and topics but, hopefully, has touched upon the major ones. As travelers, explorers, and citizens of the earth, we must continue our aspiration to understand and sustain our built-natural environment, and the mobility ecosystem, before they become unsustainable. This series has not given proper attention to a host or organizations (public, private, academic, and others) that are making substantial contributions toward the challenges and opportunities facing the mobility ecosystem. Some of these and associated organizations include the United States Department of Transportation and its modal administrations and offices, state departments of transportation, city and county associations, the National Academies including the Transportation Research Board, American Association of Highway and Transportation Officials and their regional associations, Intelligent Transportation Society of America, Metropolitan Planning Organizations, American Road and Transportation Builders Association, Associated General Contractors of America and their state chapters, American Council of Engineering Companies and affiliates, National Society of Professional Engineers and affiliates, National Society of Black Engineers and affiliates, Women in Transportation Society and affiliates, Women in Transportation Society International, Society of women Engineers, National Association of Women in Construction, American Society of Civil Engineers and affiliates, Society of American Military Engineers and associated posts, Green Roads, World Road Federation, International Road Federation, International Bridge, Tunnel, and Turnpike Association, Engineering News Record, American Trucking Association and state chapters, American Public Transportation Association and state affiliates, Association of American Railroads, colleges and universities including University Transportation Centers, and others. Other companies too numerous to name helping to lead the way include auto and truck manufactures, technology companies (including AI, 5G, web services, data services, edge computing), safety (National Safety Council and affiliates, American Traffic Safety Services Association, Association of Transportation Information Safety Professionals, and many others), finance agencies including bonding, other agencies (federal, state, and local), interest groups of all kinds (including the American Automobile Association), and many other important organizations that not only add to our body of knowledge through studies, reports, webinars, conferences, news and other means to advance our mutual interests reflecting a cross-section of our society, economy, and environment. My apologies for the many organizations I have not acknowledged.

Dr. “Kevin” Bao also provides an interesting perspective on how leaders should respond to crises and opportunities.  (Steele, 2021). Perhaps this can help in our efforts to clearly, objectively, and urgently address the challenges ahead.

The National Academy of Engineering, National Academies, is bringing many previously disparate and fragmented disciplines and areas of scholarship of complex systems into more holistic thinking (Madhavan et al, 2020). It is challenging and difficult work to digest such broad knowledge but it is an important start to a better way forward, in transportation, mobility, and other areas. After all, a unifying characteristic of complex systems is that they are driven by human behavior, and human thinking.

Of course an elephant in the room is what impact will the $1.9 trillion Covid relief package have on our society, economy, environment, and people’s lives to include the transportation and mobility space (Pramuk, 2021; Morris, 2021).

The new Biden Administration also envisions a once in a century opportunity to change transportation—a new transportation era—comparing this opportunity to the interstate highway system started under President Eisenhower and the transcontinental railroad started under President Lincoln (Yen, 2021). As such, the Administration continues to pursue a robust $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan (Tankersley, et al, 2021). While the majority of Americans support this and there is a verifiable need, it is also a “heavy lift” considering the complexities of our modern day society and politics.

There is also the underlying discussion of how to best democratize the Internet and social media without interfering with the great good these tools provide (IoTeX, 2020; Newcomb, 2016; Smith, 2019; Edinger, 2021; Vicente, 2020; Susaria, 2021; Edinger, 2021).

Recently, the first Nobel Prize Summit was held and attended by Nobel Prize Laureates and other experts. The summit was convened to promote a transformation to global sustainability for human prosperity and equity. As was pointed out, time is the natural resource in shortest supply. This summit was established amid a global pandemic, a crisis of inequality, an ecological crisis, a climate crisis, and an informational crisis. Without transformational action this decade, humanity is taking colossal risks with our common future. The future of all life on this planet, humans and our societies included requires us to become effective stewards in creating a harmonious biosphere and society. This includes inherent infrastructure and mobility. The bottom line, there is now an existential need to build economies and societies that support Earth system harmony rather than disrupt it. In summary, we need to reinvent our relationship with planet Earth as we build this new future. (The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine, 2021)

There is an adage that says the only way to predict the future is to invent, or create, it. There are myriad efforts in that direction. To that end we may be seeing the private sector emerging to lead that future while the public sector follows.

Which takes us back to the quote at the beginning of Part 1 in this series: 

The world as we have created it is a process of our thinking. It cannot be changed without changing our thinking.” 

― Albert Einstein

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Shea, R. (2021, January 19). Is the 3-2-2 model the future of work? Expert weighs in. Ladders. Retrieved May 23, 2021, from https://www.theladders.com/career-advice/is-the-3-2-2-model-the-future-of-work-expert-weighs-in

Shemkus, S. (2020, October 26). ‘Streets are for people’: Boston reflects on the role of roadways after COVID-19. Energy News Network. Retrieved May 23, 2021, from https://energynews.us/2020/10/26/in-boston-pandemic-prompts-reflection-on-role-of-streets-after-covid-19-passes/

Silic, A. (2021, February 13). What is Hyperloop and when will it be ready? Discover Magazine. Retrieved May 23, 2021, from https://www.discovermagazine.com/technology/what-is-hyperloop-and-when-will-it-be-ready

Silver, P. (n.d.). Video: Modernization, resiliency, and cost savings in transportation enabled by the cloud. AWS. Retrieved May 23, 2021, from https://pages.awscloud.com/transportation-by-cloud-confirmation.html

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Schmitz, P. (2021, March 3). Resiliency in infrastructure part 1: what it means and why now? Tensar Americas Blog. Retrieved May 23, 2021, from https://info.tensarcorp.com/resiliency-in-infrastructure-what-it-means-and-why-now

Smith, C. (2020, May 14). Mindset shift needed to view infrastructure as a system that serves society. New Civil Engineer. Retrieved June 12, 2021, from https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/mindset-shift-needed-to-view-infrastructure-as-a-system-that-serves-society-14-05-2020/

Smith, P. (2019, March 28). The challenge of drawing a line between objectionable material and freedom of expression online. The Conversation. Retrieved June 12, 2021, from https://theconversation.com/the-challenge-of-drawing-a-line-between-objectionable-material-and-freedom-of-expression-online-108764

Spohr, M. (2020, December 3). Futurists tell us the most amazing and scary things to expect in the future. BuzzFeed. Retrieved May 23, 2021, from https://www.buzzfeed.com/mikespohr/futurologists-expectations

Steele, J. (2021, February 22). CEOs should develop an ambivalent mindset in crises, says UAH professor’s research. The University of Alabama in Huntsville. Retrieved June 12, 2021, from https://www.uah.edu/news/items/ceos-should-develop-an-ambivalent-mindset-in-crises-says-uah-professor-s-research

Stout, T. (2020, December 4). Why inductive charging should be considered in any electric vehicle planning effort. HDR. Retrieved May 23, 2021, from https://www.hdrinc.com/insights/experts-talk-wireless-power-transfer-and-electric-vehicle-applications-thomas-stout

Subin, S. (2021, February 14). Why one big Wall Street banker is betting flying taxis will replace helicopters. CNBC. Retrieved May 23, 2021, from https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/14/why-wall-street-banker-thinks-flying-taxis-will-replace-helicopters.html

Susaria, A. (2021, February 22). If big tech has the will, here are ways research shows self-regulation can work. Government Technology. Retrieved June 12, 2021, from https://www.govtech.com/security/if-big-tech-has-the-will-here-are-ways-research-shows-self-regulation-can-work.html

Tankersley, J. B. Casselman, E. Cochrane. (2021, April 16). Voters like Biden infrastructure plan; G.O.P. still sees an opening on taxes. The New York Times. Retrieved June 12, 2021, from https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/15/business/economy/infrastructure-economy-biden.html

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The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine. (2018). The future interstate report: 10 big ideas for the 21st century. The National Academies of Sciences Engineering, Medicine. Retrieved May 23, 2021, from https://www.nap.edu/resource/25334/interstate

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine (2021, March 31). Science Academies of G-7 nations call for action to reach net-zero emissions, reverse declines in biodiversity, and improve data-sharing to prepare for future health emergencies. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine. Retrieved June 12, 2021, from https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2021/03/science-academies-of-g-7-nations-call-for-action-to-reach-net-zero-emissions-reverse-declines-in-biodiversity-and-improve-data-sharing-to-prepare-for-future-health-emergencies

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine (2021, April 29). Our planet, our future: an urgent call for action. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine. Retrieved June 12, 2021, from https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2021/04/nobel-prize-laureates-and-other-experts-issue-urgent-call-for-action-after-our-planet-our-future-summit

Thorbecke, C. (2021, March 26). Economic concerns mount as Suez Canal impasse drags on. ABC News. Retrieved June 12, 2021, from https://abcnews.go.com/Business/economic-concerns-mount-suez-canal-impasse-drags/story?id=76701958

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Turkel, T. (2021, March 17). Quebec’s rollout of electric vehicles holds lessons for Maine. Portland Press Herald. Retrieved May 23, 2021, from https://www.pressherald.com/2021/03/17/electric-vehicle-rollout-in-quebec-holds-lessons-for-maine/

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The Mobility Ecosystem: the changing landscape and the need for fresh, new ideas (Part 11: Leadership and Education)

17 Saturday Apr 2021

Posted by in Business Transformation, Communications, Economics, Economy, Education, Environment, Future, Government & Policy, Leadership, Learning and Success, Mobility, Mobility Ecosystem, Partnerships and Collaboration, Relationships, Resilience, Society, Sustainability, Technology, Transportation, Trust

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There is little or no question that education is a key to success. As the responsibilities of transportation professionals broaden, there is needed education in all areas: the suites of disciplines in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math) but also digital technologies and their various disciplines and off-shoots, social sciences, human resources management, public relations/communications, organization development and change, project and program management, business, finance, accounting, project controls (scope, schedule, budget), audit, English/editing/writing, planning, project development, design, construction, operations, maintenance, engineering and its disciplines, architecture, systems engineering/management, biological/environmental/climate sciences, geology, hydrology, political science and government, law, economics and economic development, jobs sustained and created, analytics, quality assurance and control, history, leadership, and many others. These are needed along with the skills, talents, and innovations to address the spectrum of transportation and mobility and associated challenges. It is difficult to find comparable data on countries’ STEM graduates. However, it appears while the U. S. produces the most Ph.D.s and 40 percent of India STEM graduates are women, India and perhaps China produce more STEM graduates than the U. S. (Buchholz, 2020; Sindwani, 2020; Gray, 2017). Regardless, the United States needs to keep focused on the importance of STEM programs and adjust to increasing technology and automation (Långstedt, 2021; Dilven, 2021). The competition for talent and skills will only continue in the future. A recently announced leadership development program is a partnership between Kiewit Corporation and University of Nebraska called the Kiewit Scholars Program (Crouch and Reed, 2021).

Marcia McNutt, President of the National Academy of Sciences, provided an excellent overview as the 2021 Transportation Research Board (TRB) Key Note Speaker on where we have been, where we are, and where we’re headed in her presentation: “Delivering science in a crisis: our critical role in helping society build back and forge a more resilient, sustainable future” (https://youtu.be/wuMOSM8BEoA). The TRB celebrated its 100th anniversary November 11, 2020, and as part of the National Academies, signed into law by Abraham Lincoln during the Civil War.

It is also important to remember that leadership is about people (Bock, 2021).

Strong generalist, systems and servant leadership are essential to bring this all together, setting the vision, mission, strategy, goals and objectives, priorities, policies, and standards through the people to overcome the many challenges—social, environmental, economic—we face (Smith, 2020; Renjen, 2020; Baldoni, 2020; Renjen, 2019; Moore, 2019; Bruce, 2020). (Some of these topics are also discussed in other articles on this website www.leadershipintransportation.com). In addition to the many talents leaders have needed in the past and present, they must continue to learn, adjust, and understand digital technology, at least at a conceptual and conversational level about what it can and cannot do (Joy, 2021; Cheng, et al, 2021). These are in addition to the many characteristics and intangibles that make good leaders—providing vision and direction, listening, asking questions, being responsible and accountable, giving credit, taking blame, being open, transparent and honest, doing outreach, building trust and strong relationships, and many more.

Some good transportation leadership articles written in a plain and direct manner are worth reading (McClain, 2013; Russell Reynolds Associates, 2015; Fohr, 2020). There is also the greening of transportation career fields (National Center for Sustainable Transportation, n.d.).

Top leaders must also develop a strategy that is simple, disciplined, and based on a clear value proposition on which customers, employees, suppliers, partners and stakeholders can mobilize (Oberholzer-Gee, 2021).

Regarding leadership, the Biden Administration has proposed a vast $2 trillion infrastructure package while the Nobel Foundation is hosting a “Nobel Prize Summit: Our Planet, Our Future” in April 2021 in efforts to address the many social, economic, and environmental needs (Tankersley, 2021; Renshaw and Holland, 2021; Schlesinger, 2021; Schapker, 2021; The National Academies of Sciences Engineering Medicine, 2021; Wehrman, 2021). Some are even promoting a $10 trillion infrastructure package over 10 years (Anderson, 2021; Winck, 2021.)

It is likely that we will see more changes in the transportation and mobility space in the next 10 years than in the previous 100, and education and leadership are more important than ever. It is no understatement that the race to the future will require skilled leadership and a well educated and skilled workforce. With the dramatic pace of change, perhaps there is nothing more important than to be life long learners. This writer has learned this lesson many times.

It has perhaps never been more important and necessary to step back and look at the world anew, think anew, and act anew, as a whole, not just its parts and sum of its parts, but as more than the sum of its parts—the built-natural environment we call earth—our home. This, leadership, and education, will continue to help us find a better path forward.

Literature Cited

Anderson, C. (2021, March 31). Progressives push Biden to include $10 trillion climate plan in infrastructure package. The Washington Free Beacon. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://freebeacon.com/policy/progressives-push-biden-to-include-10-trillion-climate-plan-in-infrastructure-package/

Baldoni, J. (2020, April 24). Looking for talent to lead a post-crisis world. SmartBrief. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://www.smartbrief.com/original/2020/04/looking-talent-lead-post-crisis-world

Bock, W. (2021, March 18). 10 things leaders should remember about people. Three Star Leadership. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://www.threestarleadership.com/leadership/10-things-leaders-should-remember-about-people

Bruce. J. (2020, January 7). The future of work is now: embrace the uncertainty. Forbes. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://www.forbes.com/sites/janbruce/2020/01/07/the-future-of-work-is-now-embrace-the-uncertainty

Buchholz, K. (2020, September 16). Where most students choose STEM degrees. Statista. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://www.statista.com/chart/22927/share-and-total-number-of-stem-graduates-by-country/

Cheng, J.Y., C. Frangos, B. Groysberg. (2021, March 12). Is your c-suite equipped to lead a digital transformation? Harvard Business Review. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://hbr.org/amp/2021/03/is-your-c-suite-equipped-to-lead-a-digital-transformation

Crouch, R. and L. Reed. (2021, January 28). Kiewit launches full-tuition scholarship, leadership program at Nebraska Engineering. University of Nebraska-Lincoln News. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://news.unl.edu/newsrooms/today/article/kiewit-launches-full-tuition-scholarship-leadership-program-at-nebraska/

Dilven, M. (2021, March 2). The mindblowing Amazon work from home policy that rivals all other companies. Ladders. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://www.theladders.com/career-advice/the-mindblowing-amazon-work-from-home-policy-that-rivals-all-other-companies

Fohr, M.C. (2020, December 3). Rethinking transportation and logistics leadership in an age of digital transformation. Spencer Stuart. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://www.spencerstuart.com/leadership-matters/2020/december/rethinking-transportation-and-logistics-leadership-in-an-age-of-digital-transformation

Gray, A. (2017, February 27). These countries have the most doctoral graduates. World Economic Forum. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/02/countries-with-most-doctoral-graduates/

Joy, E. (2021, March 11). The future of leadership: skills to look for in business leaders post-COVID-19. Talent Management: Chief Learning Officer. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://www.chieflearningofficer.com/2021/03/11/the-future-of-leadership-skills-to-look-for-in-business-leaders-post-covid-19/

Långstedt, J. (2021, February 14). How will our values fit future work? An empirical exploration of basic values and susceptibility to automation. Routledge. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/10301763.2021.1886624?needAccess=true

McClain, W. (2013, October 9. Strategic thinking for transportation leaders. U.S. Army. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://www.army.mil/article/112374/strategic_thinking_for_transportation_leaders

Moore, G. (2019, January 3). 3 ways to be a good leader in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. World Economic Forum. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/01/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-needs-new-forms-of-leadership/

National Center for Sustainable Transportation. (n.d.). The greening of career pathways and leadership in transportation. University of California Davis. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://ncst.ucdavis.edu/project/greening-career-pathways-and-leadership-transportation

Oberholzer-Gee, F. (2021). Eliminate strategic overload. Harvard Business Review. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://hbr.org/2021/05/eliminate-strategic-overload

Renjen, P. (2019, January 23). The 4 types of leader who will thrive in the Fourth Industrial Revolution. World Economic Forum. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/01/these-four-leadership-styles-are-key-to-success-in-the-fourth-industrial-revolution/

Renjen, P. (2020, October 8). The value of resilient leadership: renewing our investment in trust. Deloitte. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/covid-19/trust-in-leadership-organization.html

Renshaw, J. and S. Holland. (2021, April 2). Biden says $2 trillion jobs plan rivals the space race in its ambition. Reuters. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/biden-kicks-off-effort-reshape-us-economy-with-infrastructure-package-2021-03-31/

Russell Reynolds Associates. (2015, July 1). Transport and logistics: five leadership issues worthy of board and executive attention. Russell Reynolds Associates. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://www.russellreynolds.com/insights/thought-leadership/five-transportation-and-logistics-leadership-issues-worthy-of-board-and-executive-attention

Schapker, L. (2021, March 31). White House proposed 8-year, $2 trillion infrastructure plan. Washington Newsline. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://newsline.artba.org/2021/03/31/white-house-proposes-8-year-2-trillion-infrastructure-plan

Schlesinger, J.M. (2021, April 1). Biden’s infrastructure plan: which sectors would benefit? The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-infrastructure-plan-which-sectors-would-benefit-11617278854

Sindwani, P. (2020, February 28). India tops the world in producing female graduates in STEM but ranks 19th in employing them. Business Insider India. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://www.businessinsider.in/careers/news/india-tops-the-world-in-producing-female-graduates-in-stem-but-ranks-19th-in-employing-them/articleshow/74117413.cms

Smith, C. (2020, May 14). Mindset shift needed to view infrastructure as a system that serves society. New Civil Engineer. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/mindset-shift-needed-to-view-infrastructure-as-a-system-that-serves-society-14-05-2020/

Tankersley, J. (2021, April 5). Biden team prepares $3 trillion in new spending for the economy. The New York Times. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/22/business/biden-infrastructure-spending.html

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine. (2021, March 17). Nobel Prize Summit ‘Our Planet, Our Future’ to be held April 26-28; registration now open. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2021/03/nobel-prize-summit-our-planet-our-future-to-be-held-april-26-28-registration-now-open

Wehrman, J. (2021, April 8). DOT lists transport projects in $2 trillion plan to woo Congress. Roll Call. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://www.rollcall.com/2021/04/08/dot-lists-transport-projects-in-2-trillion-plan-to-woo-congress/

Winck, B. (2021, April 1). AOC says Biden’s infrastructure plan is way too small — she wants a $10 trillion package. Business Insider. Retrieved April 17, 2021, from https://www.businessinsider.com/aoc-biden-infrastructure-spending-plan-trillions-housing-health-care-recovery-2021-4

The Mobility Ecosystem: the changing landscape and the need for fresh, new ideas (Part 7: Maximizing Results with Limited Funding)

20 Saturday Feb 2021

Posted by in Alternative Delivery, Asset & Life Cycle Management, Benefit-Cost or BC, Construction, Design, Design Exceptions, Practical Design, Least-Cost Planning, Funding, Intelligent Transportation Systems or ITS, Internet of Things or IoT, Maintenance, Materials, Multimodal Needs Assessment, Needs Assessments, Operations, Partnerships and Collaboration, Performance Measurement and Management, Planning, Program Management, Program or Project Controls, Project Management, Recycling, Relationships, Return on Investment or ROI, Risks, Safety, Scope, Schedule, Budget, Transportation

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There is never enough funding in any organization to meet the needs, much less the wants. The debates to determine funding and how to allocate it are endless and continue to this day at all levels of government (Ryan, 2021). Typically, the effective use of available funding falls to public sector transportation professionals, unless private-sector owners, in conjunction with private sector partners. Thus, it is important to review some analytic tools, methodologies, and aspects for maximizing results with limited funding. These could loosely be considered part of asset management. A more thorough review of asset management, setting a basis, criteria, and priorities, is on the March 6, 2016, article on this website entitled Transportation Asset Management. This discussion merely augments that discussion and is by no means an exhaustive list. In no particular order, these are some of the more important tools, methodologies, and aspects that can help establish priorities and maximize results with limited funding.

  • Asset Management: Every public and private body is under increasing pressure to justify investment and that it is making the best use of its resources. The essence of asset management is to better prioritize resources to optimize outcomes, basically institutionalizing a business-like approach to managing infrastructure—asset management. The ability to retain, retrieve, and analyze increasing amounts of data in recent decades has enabled evidence-based decision-making on a network scale. Made possible by computers and digital technology, other “big picture” analyses are increasingly emerging to include the discipline of sustainability that facilitates decision-making among economic, social, and environmental realms. Performance metrics also began to evolve at the same time as asset management. The result is a fundamental framework for managing resources or assets:
    • Performance measures: what target is desired and achievable
    • Asset:
      • Inventory
      • Condition
      • Utilization
      • Value in dollars
    • Life-cycle cost prediction: estimate remaining useful life
    • Agency or organization cost
    • User cost
    • Trade-off analysis and investment strategies (by combining the above to produce an optimized budget)—criteria to develop needs priorities
    • Develop an emergency fund for unexpected events
    • Develop program including asset needs priorities with available funding

      Asset management is quite literally the best of continuous improvement. That process never ends. More discussion can be found on this website under transportation asset management.
  • Scope, Schedule, Budget: This is closely related to Planning, design, below. Regardless, as a program or project is contemplated, a preliminary and final scope, schedule, and budget must be developed. Tied to the next bullet point, it is common for scope to creep or an ill-defined scope to create problems later on. As such, that can lead to schedule and budget problems later. This is especially prevalent in mega and giga programs and projects. The takeaway: spend the time necessary up front to conduct thorough due diligence, planning, risk assessment, and scoping. It is a lot better and a lot less expensive in time, money, and resources to do it right the first time vice the second or more times. Effective and efficient program or project controls are essential to track changes against the baseline contract of scope, schedule, and budget.
  • Planning, Design: There is no substitute for good, solid planning and design. This in no way discounts good construction, maintenance, operations, materials, and other practices. These can all save or optimize dollars when done right. However, many times problems and opportunities missed can be traced back to the beginning of planning and design. It can be a challenge and take time to get input and reviews from construction, maintenance, operations, stakeholders, and partners. It is worth the effort to do things right or as well as possible at the beginning. Otherwise, time and money will be expended later and opportunities will likely be lost. More broadly, open-source engineering can be more valuable economically and in terms of building on standard design specifications. Thus providing more cost-effective projects, more innovation, improved quality, and scalability. (Shepherd-Smith, 2021).
  • Needs Assessments, Criteria, and Priorities: This may appear obvious, and as stated above it is discussed in more detail in other blogs. Regardless, this process is essential in setting priorities for what to do first, second, third, and so on in spending on the highest priorities. While many governments do this, all do not. The larger, more capable governments tend to do this a lot more than smaller governmental, typically more rural, cities and counties. This typically manifests itself in state departments of transportation doing thorough needs assessments while smaller, less populated cities and counties have neither the staff or funding to do this. This can be a problem. This can be similar in non-highway modes. One solution is to generate one multimodal needs assessment for states, cities, and counties. To gain consensus on such a mechanism would be Herculean but not impossible. As it is, each entity has its own way of identifying needs and setting priorities and the challenge increases as governments establish “formulas” in an attempt to equitably distribute funding to the highest needs. This manifests itself in several ways such as donor and donee states relative to the federal Highway Trust Fund, earmarks depending on the power of elected officials, competitive grants which typically leave out smaller, more rural communities, and others. These are all an attempt to do the best we can but they also fall short. The net result—the inability to fund the highest needs. While it is true that federal and state highways carry the vast majority of traffic, the needs of rural communities are of equal importance. So, the idea of a multimodal and multigovernmental needs assessment should be aspired to if not accomplished. There are some rare examples of similar efforts in other areas that have been successful such as the State of Iowa developing one common state-city-county design manual. Also, the State of Nebraska requires an annual needs assessment (with inventory, standard criteria, inspections, estimated scope and cost, etc) for their state highway system so that the state legislature has a target to determine funding. Uniquely, Nebraska law has a variable fuel tax that adjusts the state fuel tax to meet that funding, regardless of impacts such as decreased fuel consumption due to pandemics or other unforeseen events. A system that effectively prioritizes limited funding to address the needs of one seamless transportation/mobility system would be invaluable to our society vice each governmental entity struggling on its own. While this may never be achieved, it is worth aspiring to.
  • Design Exceptions, Practical Design, and Least-cost Planning: Until perhaps the last two decades, the standards for planning and design were fairly rigidly followed, partly due to liability risks of not doing so. That is understandable because of the importance of standards. However, as funding continues to be tight as needs grow, exceptions have increasingly been made. This evolution began as design exceptions to established standards, to somewhat broader exceptions termed practical design, and that has evolved into more recently termed least-cost planning. The core purpose of all is to maximize results with limited funding where a high proportion of benefits can be gained while accepting little or no additional risk. These are of course highly scrutinized for approval but can save considerable dollars. One mega program in Oregon had 275 design exceptions which saved $683 million.
  • Alternative Delivery Methodologies: Alternative delivery methodologies have been around for decades in the form of contracts of which the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers has been one of the more innovative. In 1993 the Design-Build Institute of America (DBIA) agreed upon the term design-build and its use among transportation agencies began to accelerate. Originally established to save time, not money, design-build projects have evolved to save time and money (Figure 8). Other integrated delivery methodologies have also begun to emerge such as design-build-operate, design-build-operate-maintain, construction management-general contractor, public-private-partnerships, and others, each designed for a specific purpose in saving the owner time, money, level of oversight, or all three. The key is that integrated delivery teams can work together, resulting in time and money savings for the owner. Embedded is risk and who has it, but that’s another subject that warrants a paper on its own.
FIGURE 8. Design-build compared to other project delivery methods. Source: DBIA, n.d.
  • Materials: This may seem out of place but it is not. High-strength steel is a good example of allowing wider gaps to be spanned with fewer vertical supports and girders. Superpave asphalt mixes compete effectively with concrete depending on the costs of oil, cement, and other commodities. Likewise, steel can compete against concrete and accrue savings. Fiberglass reinforced-polymer girders and other corrosion-resistant features have also been employed to extend the design life of bridges to at least 100 years (Knapschaefer, 2021). 3D printed bridges and other structures can save on time and labor (U.S. Bridge, 2021).
  • Recycling: Recycling is about saving resources and money. Asphalt, concrete, and steel are regularly recycled by owners and construction contractors, through both on-site and off-site processes. Depending on the strength, bridge girders are utilized on other bridges as appropriate. Old rail cars have been recycled as low cost-culverts where appropriate. One of the more innovative recycling methods being studied is to use old wind turbine blades in bridges as well as buildings, etc., rather than placing them in landfills (Stone, 2021).
  • Engineering Economics: This tool has been around for over 100 years but continues to be relevant although other tools now supplement it and can lead to other conclusions.
  • Life Cycle Costs: This tool has been around for over 100 years although it has been refined during that time. As our perspectives have increasingly become long-term versus short-term or a human lifetime, the life cycle of infrastructure, vehicles, and other assets have taken on additional meaning relative to least-cost decision-making. Therefore, the life cycle cost of any asset is critical to know.
  • Return on Investment (ROI): Commonly known as ROI, this is another analytical tool that can have myriad perspectives. That is the ROI in economic terms, jobs created or sustained, environmental values, social values, and so forth. Regardless, knowing the return on dollars expended is a critical part of decision-making.
  • Benefit-Cost (BC): Benefit-Cost is commonly assessed as a ratio, normally calculated in dollars. Frequently shown as an equation such as a BC ratio of 3:1 or B/C and if the numerator or B is greater than the denominator, then it is concluded to be a benefit. If the numerator or B is less than 1 it is considered a net cost and not a benefit. Nonetheless, this is another important tool in determining investments.
  • Economies of Scale: This is a methodology that can provide a return on scale. For example, “bundling” projects within a region can reduce mobilization and material delivery costs. Conversely, breaking projects up has the potential to increase competition and reduce costs. While this is not a new concept, it is valuable. The term “bundle” is a relatively new term and is now commonly used. Previously, other terms such as “tied projects” were used to describe the same methodology. Buying materials, equipment, and other assets at scale can also provide economies of scale and reduce costs.
  • Multimodal Needs Assessments: Typically, needs assessments have been done by asset or mode with critically important and useful outcomes. As mobility has become increasingly multimodal, the question has become how to conduct needs assessments across all modes. Multimodal planning is common but multimodal needs assessments are largely qualitative, not standardized, and not widely accepted. One of the outcomes in the absence of good, repeatable, and reliable multimodal needs assessments is that funding (federal and state) is distributed based on modal assessments, dominated by highways and bridges, and then a somewhat subjective assessment of how to distribute dollars to each mode. Until we achieve a truly standardized multimodal needs assessment with specific criteria, allocating funds to other modes (such as transit and pedestrians) will be a challenge. Generally, transportation is not a particularly partisan topic at governmental levels, partly because it provides objective information to help determine what funds can or will be appropriated and what the long-term implications may be. This is critical for the built environment in which we live.
  • Operations and Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS): ITS was one outcome of advancing digital technology. What this allowed was the transportation system to be instrumented with sensors that provide data and information, especially on volume and speed, to a central office that can more quickly and effectively assess and respond to congestion and issues stemming from traffic congestion, crashes, and other incidences. Advanced Traffic Management System (ATMS) is used for traffic management and control and accounts for the most revenue in the overall ITS market. Although the benefit-costs of ITS vary widely from 2-9:1, others exceed 100:1. One ratio used for comparing ITS to more infrastructure is 8:1, a methodology to get more capacity from the existing roadway. The prudent use of ITS technologies can achieve greater benefit at less cost than more concrete, asphalt, and steel. Related, vehicle pricing systems such as electronic toll collection, congestion pricing, vehicle miles traveled, and other road user charging systems can be cost-effective. In addition, transport and supply chain service providers are seeking cost-effective solutions that ITS can provide to boost their productivity, performance, and profits. On e example developed early in Nebraska was a statewide oversize-overweight permitting system that allowed truckers to efficiently route their trucks and cargo and became an effective decision-making tool.
  • Internet of Things or IoT: There are benefits to be gained throughout society by leveraging IoT, including in government, and new opportunities are continually being uncovered to improve services and efficiencies (Center for Digital Government, 2019; AT&T, n.d.; ServiceNow, n.d.; Descant, 2019).
  • Partnerships and Collaboration: It is virtually impossible for any organization to have all the talent, tools, and resources to optimize returns for society, the economy, and our environment. As such, partnerships and collaboration are keys to leveraging the unique strengths of an organization. This is not a new concept, but like the exponential growth of our 4th Industrial or Digital Age, the need is greater than ever before. These strategies continue to grow (Salesforce, n.d.).
  • Program and Project Management: Good program and project management begins and ends with good leadership. The team is all-important since they are the ones that get work done. As such, good leadership can make a team better while bad leadership can destroy a team. This easily translates to improved or decreased performance, costs, and profits. This topic is also discussed in other blogs on leadership, program, and project management on this website. There are many articles and books on program and project management, one of the most prolific and best is Robert Prieto who publishes regularly in PM World. He also authored one of the most comprehensive books on the subject, “Theory of management of large complex projects” (Prieto, 2015). Also, review PMWorld Journal, https://pmworldjournal.com/welcome, and the Project Management Institute (https://www.pmi.org).
  • Risk Management: This is the identification, evaluation, and prioritization of risks followed by methodologies to minimize, monitor, and control the probability or impact of unfortunate events or to maximize the realization of opportunities. The U. S. transportation industry has enormous risk exposure and among the most risk-prone industries in the world. As such, the federal transportation law—Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act, or MAP-21, and signed into law in 2012 (FMCSA, n.d.)—established the requirement for states to develop a risk-based asset management plan. Risk management is a dynamic process and used routinely within the public and private sectors. Without such plans, organizations can be surprised by events with negative financial impact or miss positive opportunities with improved outcomes. The literature on risk management is rich and continues to evolve.
  • Strong Relationships: This is another topic that might seem odd within a discussion of maximizing results with limited funding. However, the adage “a good relationship can make a bad contract better while a bad relationship can make a good contract worse” reflects the importance of strong relationships. It is common to have disputes but resolving them in a fair and amicable way while preserving the all-important relationships is critical. No one really wins when disputes move to litigation. This topic is further discussed in other blogs on this website, including the importance of trust.
  • Safety: This may seem an odd topic within the topic of maximizing results with limited funding but the cost in lives, injuries, and property damage is staggering. As has been stated, virtually every transportation organization has the safety of their employees and traveling public as their highest priority. One of these efforts to improve safety, although for NASCAR racing, has important implications for the traveling public (Midwest Roadside Safety Facility, n.d.; Wikipedia, 2021). The work towards a safer built environment will likely never end.

This is by no means meant to be an exhaustive list and is only intended as a sample. The search to reduce costs is part of continuous improvement and that never ends. There are some very simple changes that cumulatively can have huge impacts including the use of LED bulbs in traffic signals and buildings, the use of highly reflective tape rather than electric lit signs, shutting off computers during overnight hours, and so on. This, again, is in no way a substitute for sound and skilled planning, project development, design, construction, maintenance, and operations, all of which continue to evolve and improve within their own discipline.

The Biden Administration recently announced through their Infrastructure for Rebuilding America grants or INFRA some of the above tools and methods as part of their criteria in addition to other related criteria such as climate change, environmental justice, and racial equity (Ichniowski, 2021). Still, other technologies are being advanced with their own inherent efficiencies (New Hampshire Union Leader, 2021; VIA, n.d.; LeBeau, 2021; Danko, 2021; Ewoldsen, 2021). Other technologies that may seem a bit far-fetched continue to advance and may be part of a transportation future and at less cost (Levy, 2021; Subin, 2021; Halvorson, 2021). Still, other areas are advancing, including space, and may well have cost-effective impacts on our futures on earth (Adams, 2021; Hughes, 2020).

Citations

Adams, R. D. (2021, January 21). AI spacefarers and cosmic testbeds: robust robotic systems forge path for human space exploration. TechRepublic. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.techrepublic.com/article/ai-spacefarers-and-cosmic-testbeds-robust-robotic-systems-forge-path-for-human-space-exploration

AT&T (n.d.) Creating Better Communities. Government Technology. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://media.erepublic.com/document/GT18_HANDBOOK_ATT_Slides_V.pdf

Center for Digital Government. (2019). IoT innovation: how government is uncovering new opportunities. Center for Digital Government sponsored by Cisco. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://media.erepublic.com/document/CDG18_WHITE_PAPER_Cisco-IoT-NewOps_V.pdf

Danko, P. (2021, February 3). Arcimoto’s latest stock surge gives it $1B market cap. Portland Business Journal. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www-bizjournals-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.bizjournals.com/portland/news/2021/02/03/arcimotos-market-cap-1b.amp.html

DBIA. (n.d.). Why choose design-build? Design-Build Institute of America. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://dbia.org/what-is-design-build/

Descant, S. (2019, October 29). Chicago collaboration looks to redefine modern transportation. Government Technology. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.govtech.com/transportation/Chicago-Collaboration-Looks-to-Redefine-Modern-Transportation.html

Ewoldsen, B. (2021, January 21). New mobility services combined with transit show potential to further accessibility, efficiency, equity, safety, and sustainability. Transportation Research Board. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from http://www.trb.org/main/blurbs/181729.aspx

FMCSA. (n.d.). MAP-21 – moving ahead for progress in the 21st century act. Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/mission/policy/map-21-moving-ahead-progress-21st-century-act

Halvorson, B. (2021, February 15). Toyota claims the 2021 Mirai fuel-cell car cleans the air, calls it “minus emissions.” Green Car Reports. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1131268_toyota-claims-the-2021-mirai-fuel-cell-car-cleans-the-air-calls-it-minus-emissions

Hughes, O. (2020, November 25). To the moon and beyond: the robots that are blazing a trail for human space exploration. TechRepublic. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.techrepublic.com/article/to-the-moon-and-beyond-the-robots-that-are-blazing-a-trail-for-human-space-exploration

Ichniowski, T. (2021, February 17). Biden administration adds new climate objective for INFRA grants. Engineering News-Record. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.enr.com/articles/51239-biden-administration-adds-new-climate-objective-for-infra-grants

Knapschaefer, J. (2021, January 25). Novel fiberglass birders extend life of Maine bridge. Engineering News-Record. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.enr.com/articles/51086-novel-fiberglass-girders-extend-life-of-maine-bridge

LeBeau, P. (2021, February 10). United Airlines orders electric vertical aircraft, invests in urban air mobility SPAC. CNBC Evolve. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/10/united-airlines-orders-electric-vertical-aircraft-invests-in-urban-air-mobility-spac.html

Levy, M.G. (2021, February 12). Researchers levitated a small tray using nothing but light. Wired. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.wired.com/story/researchers-levitated-a-small-tray-using-nothing-but-light/

Midwest Roadside Safety Facility. (n.d.). The safer barrier. University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://mwrsf.unl.edu/saferBarrier.php

New Hampshire Union Leader. (2021, February 15). State-of-the-art traffic signals installed at 17 Dover intersections. New Hampshire Union Leader. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.unionleader.com/news/safety/state-of-the-art-traffic-signals-installed-at-17-dover-intersections/article_672c26f7-cfcb-5ea2-bd9f-befb1a46d840.html

Prieto, R. (2015). Theory of management of large complex projects. Construction Management Association of America. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/299980338_Theory_of_Management_of_Large_Complex_Projects

Salesforce. (n.d.). Accelerating government innovation through collaboration. Salesforce. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://media.erepublic.com/document/GOV19_BRIEF_Salesforce_01_V.pdf

ServiceNow. (n.d.). Redefining service delivery for citizens: best practices and a checklist for success. ServiceNow. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://media.erepublic.com/document/ebook-government-modernizing-csm.pdf

Shepherd-Smith, P. (2021, February 10). Open source engineering has a role to play in digital transformation. New Civil Engineer. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.newcivilengineer.com/opinion/open-source-engineering-has-a-role-to-play-in-digital-transformation-10-02-2021/

Stone, M. (2021, January 8). Today’s wind turbine blades could become tomorrow’s bridges. Grist. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://grist.org/energy/todays-wind-turbine-blades-could-become-tomorrows-bridges/

Subin, S. (2021, February 14). Why one big Wall Street banker is betting flying taxis will replace helicopters. CNBC Evolve. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/14/why-wall-street-banker-thinks-flying-taxis-will-replace-helicopters.html

Thomas, R. (2021, January 29). Lawmakers offer competing priorities for infrastructure plans. The Hill. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/infrastructure/536595-lawmakers-offer-competing-priorities-for-infrastructure

U.S. Bridge. (2020, March 24). The future of 3D printed bridges and construction. U.S. Bridge. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://usbridge.com/the-future-of-3d-printed-bridges-and-construction/

VIA. (n.d.). Reimagining how the world moves. VIA. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://ridewithvia.com/?utm_source=pardot&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_february_2021

Wikipedia. (2021, January 24). Safer barrier. Wikipedia. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAFER_barrier

The Mobility Ecosystem: the changing landscape and the need for fresh, new ideas. (Part 4: Economics of Autonomous Vehicles)

06 Saturday Feb 2021

Posted by in Autonomous Vehicles, Business Transformation, Clean Energy, Collaboration, Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAV), Dynamic Transportation Management, Economics, Electric Vehicles, Future, Government & Policy, Internet of Things or IoT, Mobility, Mobility as a Service, Mobility Ecosystem, Relationships, Ride Sharing, Safety, Smart Cities, Society, Strategic Planning, Technology, Transportation

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Motorized vehicles began with the advent of electric vehicles as evidenced by the first recorded powered vehicle fatality in the United States in 1899, from an electric taxi (see Part 2 of this series). Technology advances in the intervening 100 plus years have given rise to fully autonomous vehicles which are on the horizon.

The summary (abstract) provided by Clements and Kockelman (2017) is superb and provided in full.

“Connected and fully automated or autonomous vehicles (CAVs) may soon dominate the automotive industry. Once CAVs are sufficiently reliable and affordable, they will penetrate markets and thereby generate economic ripple effects throughout industries. This paper synthesizes and expands on existing analyses of the economic effects of CAVs in the United States across 13 industries and the overall economy. CAVs will soon be central to the automotive industry, with software composing a greater share of vehicle value than previously. The number of vehicles purchased each year may fall because of vehicle sharing, but rising travel distances may increase vehicle sales. The opportunity for heavy-truck drivers to do other work or rest during long drives may lower freight costs and increase capacity. Personal transport may shift toward shared autonomous vehicle fleet use, reducing that of taxis, buses, and other forms of group travel. Fewer collisions and more law-abiding vehicles will lower demand for auto repair, traffic police, medical, insurance, and legal services. CAVs will also lead to new methods for managing travel demand and the repurposing of curbside and off-street parking and will generate major savings from productivity gains during hands-free travel and reduction of pain and suffering costs from crashes. If CAVs eventually capture a large share of the automotive market, they are estimated to have economic impacts of $1.2 trillion or $3,800 per American per year. This paper presents important considerations for CAVs’ overall effects and quantifies those impacts.”

See Table 1 for a summary of the economic impacts of autonomous vehicles.

TABLE 1. Table 1. Summary of economic effects (industry- and economy-wide) (source: Clements, L. M. and Kockelman, K. M., “Economic effects of automated vehicles”, Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board Volume 2606, Issue 1, January 2017, pages 106-114)

In the columns headed “Dollar Change in Industry” and “Percent Change in Industry,” signs “+” and “-”, respectively, denote a gain and a loss for the industry, whereas the industry-specific total for the dollar change in industry is the sum of their absolute values. Figures in the “$/Capita” columns and provided as overall total represent the sum of net economic benefits enjoyed by consumers.

According to an estimate by Intel Corporation and Strategy Analytics, announced in June 2017, the economic effects of autonomous vehicles will total $7 trillion in 2050 (Figure 6). The dollar amount represents a newly created value or a new ‘passenger economy’, calculated based on the assumption that fully automated Level 5 vehicles will be on the roads by 2050.

Figure 6. Global service revenue generated by autonomous driving in 2050 (US$ millions) (source: Lanctot, R. Strategy Analytics, Accelerating the Future: The Economic Impact of the Emerging Passenger Economy, June 2017)

They also assumed that consumers and businesses will use Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) offerings instead of owning cars, and those who had been commuting to work by car will become passengers and spend the commuting time doing something else. Furthermore, transportation companies suffering from a serious labour shortage – such as long-haul truck operators and home delivery service providers – will introduce autonomous driving services, thereby enabling them to change their business models drastically. As such, the estimate reflects a very broad range of potential effects, which also include a wide variety of new commercial services such as onboard dining and retailing (Tomita, 2017).

Advancements continue almost daily. CNN Business (Farland, 2020) reports a self-driving and electric robotaxi from Amazon’s Zoox can travel up to 75 mph and never has to turn around, reversing directions as needed to navigate crowded city streets. In an effort to become a leader in this sector, China is advancing autonomous vehicles quickly, including fully autonomous highways (Metha, 2019; KPMG International, 2019).

There are a myriad of challenges to realize fully automated vehicles and that will require an accumulation of massive quantities of data and learning processes to enable the development of AI capable of coping with navigating the rules, laws, traffic control devices, unique infrastructure, and nuances in each city, county, and state, not to mention internationally. Moreover, developing soft infrastructure, including laws and regulations, and setting rules for liability arising from accidents involving autonomous vehicles will be challenging. Similar to the open ITS architecture established by USDOT, there is a need to establish AV architecture within the U. S., if not internationally.

The advent of fully automated driverless vehicles will have a tremendous impact on our society, bringing fundamental changes to the entire economic and social systems. When fully automated vehicles come into operation, they will become a major means of mobility for the elderly and infirmed in rural areas, in addition to agriculture uses. Urban areas will likely experience the greatest changes, the number of cars owned for personal use will drop, eliminating congestion and the need for parking spaces, and car-sharing services will continue to grow.

Companies are investing enormous money in both electric and autonomous vehicles. For example, Microsoft is investing $2 billion in Cruise, that is majority owned by GM, for a valuation of over $30 billion (Colias, 2021). Apple and Hyundai-Kia are planning to start production of a fully autonomous electric car in 2024 (Lebeau, 2021). It is interesting to note that the smart phone market is about $500 billion annually of which Apple has roughly one-third of that market. By contrast, the mobility market is about $10 trillion annually so Apple would only need two percent of that market to match their iPhone business. It is little wonder the interest in the autonomous and electric vehicle space.

Although some estimates are that it will be at least 2040 before fully autonomous vehicles will be dominant, how should we cope with these forthcoming changes? How should we redesign and change the urban and rural infrastructure and landscapes, land use, and the economic and social systems?

There are test beds spreading around the nation in an effort to bring these and other technologies to market—Contra Costa County California formed a Transportation Authority (CCTA) and developed the leading facility in the nation—GoMentum (https://gomentumstation.net), the University of Michigan established Mcity some years ago (https://mcity.umich.edu), Waymo is planning a test facility in Ohio (Moderation Team, n.d.), and Missouri just formed a Missouri Center for Transportation Innovation (https://mcti.missouri.edu). These test beds, and other efforts, reflect the drive toward an autonomous and safe mobility ecosystem future. What do they have in common? They are built on partnerships and collaboration. Of course, the National Academies Transportation Research Board (https://www.nationalacademies.org/trb/transportation-research-board), U. S. Department of Transportation, state departments of transportation, universities, and the private sector represent the best minds around and continually add to our body of knowledge on all aspects of mobility and transportation.

Autonomous marine, freshwater, river, air, truck, and train vessels

This discussion does not even mention other modes and types of autonomous vehicles such as marine, riverine, freshwater, trucks, trains, planes, drones or unmanned aerial vehicles, aircraft, or space craft. Although they share many of the same challenges as cars and similar vehicles, many of these are likely years away before widespread use. Nonetheless, they are on the horizon. Of course, the elimination/reduction of operators will require careful planning to help people find other jobs in addition to negotiations with unions, changes in business models, and changes in society. The following links provide more information on these topics.

“What Will the Autonomous Ship of the Future Looks Like?” Smithsonian Magazine: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/what-will-autonomous-ship-future-look-180962236/

“The Marine Corps is eyeing a long-range robot boat that can nail targets with kamikaze drones” Task & Purpose: https://taskandpurpose.com/news/marine-corps-long-range-unmanned-surface-vessel-contract/

“A New Generation of Autonomous Vessels Is Looking to Catch Illegal Fishers” Smithsonian Magazine: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/new-generation-autonomous-vessels-looking-catch-illegal-fishers-180976336/

“Autonomous Shipping: Trends and Innovators in a Growing Industry” Nasdaq Technology: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/autonomous-shipping%3A-trends-and-innovators-in-a-growing-industry-2020-02-18

“The Future of Autonomous Aircraft” TechXplore: https://techxplore.com/news/2020-12-future-autonomous-aircraft.html

“Xwing Unveils Autonomous Flight System for Regional Planes” VentureBeat: https://venturebeat.com/2020/08/20/xwing-unveils-autonomous-flight-system-for-regional-planes/

“Rail in on the way to autonomous trains” International Railway Journal: https://www.railjournal.com/opinion/rail-autonomous-trains

“Autonomous vessels on inland waterways” De Vlaamse Waterweg: https://ec.europa.eu/transparency/regexpert/index.cfm?do=groupDetail.groupMeetingDoc&docid=38717

“Automated Trucking, A Technical Milestone That Could Disrupt Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs, Hits the Road” CBS News 60 Minutes: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/driverless-trucks-could-disrupt-the-trucking-industry-as-soon-as-2021-60-minutes-2020-08-23/

“Robots exploring on their own and self-piloting spacecraft are a long way off, says NASA computer scientist” Arizona State University News: https://news.asu.edu/20200220-discoveries-autonomous-spacecraft-baby-steps

Citations

Clements, L.M. and K.M. Kockelman. (2017, January 1). Economic effects of automated vehicles. Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board. Retrieved February 6, 2021, from https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.3141/2606-14

Colias, M. (2021, January 19). Microsoft bets bigger on driverless-car space with investment in GM’s Cruise. The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved February 6, 2021, from https://www.wsj.com/articles/microsoft-bets-bigger-on-driverless-car-space-with-investment-ingms-cruise-11611064940#

KPMG International. (2019). 2019 autonomous vehicles readiness index: assessing countries’ preparedness for autonomous vehicles. KPMG International. Retrieved February 6, 2021, from https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2019/02/2019-autonomous-vehicles-readiness-index.pdf

Korosec, K. (2017, June 1). Intel predicts a $7 trillion self-driving future. The Verge. Retrieved February 6, 2021, from https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/1/15725516/intel-7-trillion-dollar-self-driving-autonomous-cars

Lanctot, R. (2017, June). Accelerating the future: the economic impact of the emerging passenger economy. Strategy Analytics. Retrieved February 6, 2021, from https://newsroom.intel.com/newsroom/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2017/05/passenger-economy.pdf

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A Few Common Foundational Elements of Leadership and Management

08 Monday Feb 2016

Posted by in Leadership, Management, Relationships, Team-Building

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Below are some common foundational elements of leadership and management. This is primarily “a top of mind” list based on my experience. This list is neither comprehensive nor unique to me.

Leadership matters—people-based, results-driven; provide direction, remove obstacles; be accountable and responsible for everything that does or does not happen; take blame; give credit; be action-oriented; lead change; systematize; develop leaders; be authentic—to thine own self be true

Know the business

Know the industry

Attract and retain talent and build the team—they are the ones that get the results

Relationships matter—trust, transparency and alignment

Communicate a lot, especially listen

Collaborate constantly

Delegate authority and responsibility (accountability cannot be delegated)

Don’t tolerate micromanagement or bureaucratic nonsense

Focus on a clear and simple mission

Focus on results (outcomes), not process—oriented on a few, simple, elegant performance measures that drive the mission

Focus on continuous improvement

Focus on evidence-based decision-making

Be frugal—spend money as though it is your own

Leverage technology, and allow for changes in technology

Develop economies of scale

Develop feedback loops

Develop simple, elegant, consistent messaging

Develop simple, actionable focused reports

Balance everything against risks

Balance change, directives and control with empowerment, delegation, trust and relationships

Recognize individual and team success—this raises them as an example to others and themselves

Always use simple courtesy and appreciation—say thank you

Celebrate success and have fun

Feel free to add other items to this list or develop your own list of leadership and management foundational elements. What’s important is to be mindful of the foundational elements that work for you so that you can reflect and improve them. Leadership and management are aspirational goals that are never achieved or finished.

“Leadership is an opportunity to serve. It is not a trumpet call to self-importance.”

-J. Donald Waters

“Leadership cannot really be taught. It can only be learned.”

-Harold S. Geneen

“The leader is one who mobilizes others toward a goal shared by leaders and followers… Leaders, followers and goals make up the three equally necessary supports for leadership.”

-Gary Willis