The Mobility Ecosystem: the changing landscape and the need for fresh, new ideas (Part 12: A Look into the Future)

12 Saturday Jun 2021

Posted by John L. Craig in 5.9 GHz, 5G, Alternative Delivery, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Asset & Life Cycle Management, Augmented Reality (AR), Autonomous Vehicles, Batteries, Biological Diversity, Business Transformation, Clean Energy, Climate, Cloud Services, Collaboration, Communications, Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAV), COVID-19, Cyber-security, Design, Drones, Dynamic Transportation Management, Economics, Economy, Education, Electric Vehicles, Environment, Environmental Justice, Funding, Future, Gas-Fueled Vehicles, Government & Policy, History, Homo sapiens, Infrastructure, Intelligent Infrastructure, Intelligent Transportation Systems or ITS, Internet of Things or IoT, Interstate, Investing, Leadership, Lidar, Machine Control, Materials, Mobility, Mobility Ecosystem, Multimodal, Operations, Pandemic, Partnerships and Collaboration, Pedestrians, Planning, Relationships, Resilience, Results, Ride Sharing, Robotics, Safety, Social Justice and Equity, Society, Strategic Planning, Sustainability, Technology, Transportation, Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X), Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I), Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V), Virtual Reality (VR)

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To some extent, transportation, mobility, and its infrastructure has always been a bit of a “Rorschach test.” That is that everyone, at least every American, sees something different as to what it is, what it is supposed to do, and what they want. So it is little wonder that there is a challenge in developing a strategy, consensus, and alignment in an industry with increasing social, economic, and environmental aspects to address.

No one really knows what the future holds although there is merit in the statement that “the only way to determine the future is to invent it.” There is a premise by futurists that the future can be viewed as a “cone of possibilities” which seems a reasonable approach. A Buzz Feed internet article entitled “Futurists tell us the most amazing and scary things to expect in the future” was posted on Apple News December 3, 2020 (Spohr, 2020). Some of the future mobility is described as follows.

…thinking about BuzzFeed’s younger readers, many of whom will live to see calendar years even more mind-bogglingly futuristic, like 2080, 2090, and even 2100. What will life be like for them over the course of their lives? How many changes will they see over the next 10–80 years?

To find out, BuzzFeed connected with some of the world’s leading futurists and asked them to forecast what the years to come might bring. Here are their fascinating and thought-provoking insights:

Public transit will be radically different in the future — and traffic will be a thing of the past.

Twentieth century public transit will be replaced by private transportation in van-sized smaller vehicles and single-person pods, driving on roads that are rarely congested because everybody follows tools like Waze which work together with cities to stop too many cars bunching up in the same place before they get there.”
— Brad Templeton

Family road trips will be in self-driving recreational vehicles accessorized with robot assistants and food replicators.

Self-driving RVs will pick you up from your home and be pre-programmed to drive the route you chose (including parking themselves in the designated spaces in RV parks), and they’ll stop along the way at national parks…with reservations, of course. The RV will have internet-on-the-go to allow the kids to play computer games when the vehicle is in motion. The entertainment module will be tailored to the child’s age and interests so that you will never hear, ‘Are we there yet?’ The RVs will be equipped with food replicators, so if the parents don’t want to cook, they won’t have to. Robots will handle the setup and tear down, including making sure that the black water is flushed. All the family has to do is enjoy their time together on this all-inclusive holiday.”
— Joyce Gioia

There is increasingly speculation on the future, not to mention the impact of changing technologies on skill sets and the need to re-educate the changing workforce (Shea, 2021; Michal, 2021). Even Warren Buffet was slow to recognize the important role of technology in our society (Gandel, 2021). The point, we must remain open to change otherwise we risk getting stuck (Hawrylack, 2021). This is a dynamic in human nature.

There are also studies and ideas that have been generated such as what should the future of the interstate highway system be? (The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine, 2018)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration or NASA innovations and products for space exploration have been adopted for use by our society. Most recently, NASAs 2020 Rover, a car sized vehicle has been developed along with a helicopter to learn more about the Martian planet (Adams, 2021). NASA developments will likely continue to add to our transportation-mobility arena and society as a whole.

While this series of blogs has dealt primarily with ground surface transportation and mobility, changes are afoot in other modes. For example, some airlines and investors are betting on electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft (eVTOL) to replace helicopters (Subin, 2021; LeBeau, 2021). Many want an improved passenger rail system (Benson, 2021). The Elon Musk inspired Hyperloop is estimated to exceed speeds of over 700 miles per hour and there are companies around the world working to make this a reality. Still, there are technical and economic issues to overcome (Silic, 2021; Kim and McNabb, 2020). Musk has even asserted that while the California High Speed Rail costs exceed $68 billion, the Hyperloop could be built to span the same distance for $6 billion (Nicol, 2018). There is the topic of smart roads (Integrated Roadways, n.d.).

The only thing that is certain is that the transportation and mobility space is changing, and rapidly.

There are discussions, trends, and research on the departments of transportation of the future (Fuchs and Shehadeh, 2017), thinking beyond cars (Busch, 2017), automated drive-thru meals (Metz, 2021), need for greater equity (Lydersen, 2020), easing poverty (Korman, 2021), electrifying transportation for low income communities (Citizens Utility Board of Illinois, 2020), data management (Center for Digital Government, 2020), big data to relieve congestion (Neumann, 2015), getting broadband across the United States and especially rural areas (Harrison, 2021), reducing traffic congestion and saving costs using AI and V2X (V2X=vehicle to everything) technologies (Carey, 2021), 5.9 GHz (Bhatt and Tymon, 2021), 5G (Fulton, 2021; Wachsman, 2021), smart roads and inductive charging (McFarland, 2021; Stout, 2020; Integrated Roadways, n.d.), cloud services for transportation agencies (AWS, n.d.; Silver, 2021; Matteson, 2021; Silver, n.d.), increasing citizen needs for digital technology in local governments (Schiavone, 2021; Rock Solid, n.d.; Pew Research Center, 2021), growth of micromobility (Miller, 2021), reimagine delivery with drones (Drone Delivery Canada, 2021), reinventing container shipping (Saxon and Stone, 2017), changing logistics (vanValkenburgh, 2021), renewed nature-based solutions (Miller and Huber, 2021), renewed emphasis on resiliency (Schmitz, 2021), increasing environmental issues (Teirstein, 2021; Woodyatt, 2020; Phillips, 2019; Irfan, 2019), how to rebuild America’s infrastructure (Della Rocca, et al, 2017), funding (Wehrman, 2021; Lombardo, 2021), bridging infrastructure gaps (Woetzel et al, 2016), private infrastructure financing (Budden, 2017; Parsons, 2021), new innovations in project financing, delivery, and public-private partnerships (U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highways Administration, 2021; Glazier, 2020), and many others. Others speculate on the future of mobility in cities (Harrouk, 2019), the future of autonomous vehicles in business (Gifford, 2017; Lamb, 2019), and an increasingly long line of public and private organizations committing to 100 percent electric vehicles in the next 10-20 years (Bascome, 2021), lessons in electric vehicle launches (Turkel, 2021), generator-equipped electronic vehicles (Morales, 2021), electric buses (Carroll, 2021), growing fleets of electric cabs (Lambert, 2021), electric delivery vehicles (Adams, 2021), electric heavy trucks (Reuters, 2021), design changes in electric vehicles (Korn, 2021), death of the gas-fueled vehicle (Hamza, 2021; Westbrook, 2020; van Lierop, 2020; Evannex, 2018; King, 2016), electronic vehicles will have 100% of the market by 2040 (Entrepreneur, 2021), the need for additional electric power production (Markets and Markets, 2020; Hull and Malik, 2021), new tools (Remix, 2021), some future implications of zero emission vehicles ( Robinson, 2021), expanded broadband (Pressgrove, 2021; McEwen, 2020), smart cities (Napolitano, et al, 2021), mundane mobility including sidewalks (Descant, 2021), fragility of the supply chain (Naughton and Colias, 2021; Ziady, 2021; Thorbecke, 2021), use of highway medians for other transportation purposes including monorail (Ohnsman, 2021), where Covid-19 has accelerated change (McKinsey & Company 2021), flying cars and driverless buses (Broom 2021), continuing developments in mobility technology (Heineke, et al, 2019), and the need to view infrastructure as a system (Smith, 2020). For now in the transportation space, cities are becoming greener, climate change continues largely unabated, and the impacts of the Pandemic continue with an uncertain future (Baruchman, 2021; Ariza and Harris, 2021; EPA, n.d.; The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering Medicine, 2021; vanValkenburgh, 2021b; Frueh, 2021; Lowry, 2021). These are all legitimate forward-looking “think pieces”, products, and services and are needed.

It is also important to remember we live in one world with one global economy and environment (Shalal and Lawder, 2021; Whalen, 2021; Reuters Staff, 2021).

Some aspects of these futures and ideas may materialize but they are just that, speculations on what the future of mobility may look like. What the future holds will likely be messy and not simple (Putnam, 2021; Gifford, 2017). While it can be entertaining and thought-provoking to consider these futures, no one really knows what the future holds.

To emphasize that no one really can predict the future even though many have some basis, it is interesting to look back at some predictions made only a few years ago. For example, pre-2015 (Carroll, 2014; Eaves, 2007; Frey, 2008; Threewitt, 2012) and post-2015 which is closer to what we know now (Marsh & McLennan Agency, 2018; The National Express Transit, 2019; Mire, 2019; Cunningham, 2017; Thansis1997, 2018; Goodnet, 2016; Frey, 2021). To my surprise, there are even futurist schools (The Futurist Institute). And then there are the pundits speculating on the future of transportation stocks and companies that are disrupting the transportation industry (Whiteman, 2021; Sandre, 2017).

There is the issue of what long term effects the Covid-19 Pandemic will have on transportation, mobility, and freight (Furchtgott-Roth, 2021; Polzin and Choi, 2021; Goodman et al, 2021) and warning signs of a longer pandemic (Baker, 2021).

There is also the continuous drumbeat of the need for infrastructure investment (Landers, 2021; Infrastructure Report Card, 2021). I would add to this the need for social and environmental investment since they are not mutually exclusive.

Throughout this series of blogs there has been very little attention to other areas of the transportation and mobility space such the arena of logistics and supply chains which reflect the entire system through a freight lens.

Being somewhat simplistic, we know a few things with a very high level of certainty relative to the future of transportation and mobility:

America’s transportation systems are long overdue for increased investment. As the new Biden Administration proposes massive funding initiatives for transportation infrastructure, technology will play a critical role in enabling a modernized, next-generation transportation system. A new reliable and sustainable funding model to replace the fuel tax is part of this.

Autonomous, electric vehicles, V2V, V2I, V2X, adaptive traffic signals, electronic tolling/user fees, advanced machine learning, artificial intelligence, 5G, and asset management tools using the Internet of Things, will all be foundational building blocks of a modern system.

A modernized system will combat climate change and meet constituents’ changing needs, including equity, social and environmental justice.

These systems will require a fresh approach to how information is acquired, managed and analyzed as they require the processing of petabytes of data in real time. Cloud computing and edge computing will be part of this mix considering the enormous amount of data involved.

Many are looking, exploring, and building the future of mobility and transportation, it happens a piece at a time, and like other infrastructure and systems that society depends on, is sorely needed (The Commission on the Future of Mobility, 2021). The potential for information overload is a likely risk and part of this mix, as it is presently, and must be effectively dealt with (Sammer, 2021).

The interests and impacts of transportation and mobility are vast with far-reaching impacts to our society, the economy and environment. There is likely no one that is not impacted. Although what an average family spends on transportation can vary from 13 percent to 30 percent of their income depending on various factors to include income, a common percentage used is 16 cents of every dollar, and 93% of this goes to buying, maintaining, and operating cars, the largest expenditure after housing ( Elite Personal Finance, 2021; Cautero, 2021; ITDP, 2019; Financial Samurai, 2020; Miller, 2021; U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, n.d.; American Public Transportation Association, 2021).

This has been a broad, somewhat rambling, series through the mobility ecosystem and has not touched a great many areas and topics but, hopefully, has touched upon the major ones. As travelers, explorers, and citizens of the earth, we must continue our aspiration to understand and sustain our built-natural environment, and the mobility ecosystem, before they become unsustainable. This series has not given proper attention to a host or organizations (public, private, academic, and others) that are making substantial contributions toward the challenges and opportunities facing the mobility ecosystem. Some of these and associated organizations include the United States Department of Transportation and its modal administrations and offices, state departments of transportation, city and county associations, the National Academies including the Transportation Research Board, American Association of Highway and Transportation Officials and their regional associations, Intelligent Transportation Society of America, Metropolitan Planning Organizations, American Road and Transportation Builders Association, Associated General Contractors of America and their state chapters, American Council of Engineering Companies and affiliates, National Society of Professional Engineers and affiliates, National Society of Black Engineers and affiliates, Women in Transportation Society and affiliates, Women in Transportation Society International, Society of women Engineers, National Association of Women in Construction, American Society of Civil Engineers and affiliates, Society of American Military Engineers and associated posts, Green Roads, World Road Federation, International Road Federation, International Bridge, Tunnel, and Turnpike Association, Engineering News Record, American Trucking Association and state chapters, American Public Transportation Association and state affiliates, Association of American Railroads, colleges and universities including University Transportation Centers, and others. Other companies too numerous to name helping to lead the way include auto and truck manufactures, technology companies (including AI, 5G, web services, data services, edge computing), safety (National Safety Council and affiliates, American Traffic Safety Services Association, Association of Transportation Information Safety Professionals, and many others), finance agencies including bonding, other agencies (federal, state, and local), interest groups of all kinds (including the American Automobile Association), and many other important organizations that not only add to our body of knowledge through studies, reports, webinars, conferences, news and other means to advance our mutual interests reflecting a cross-section of our society, economy, and environment. My apologies for the many organizations I have not acknowledged.

Dr. “Kevin” Bao also provides an interesting perspective on how leaders should respond to crises and opportunities. (Steele, 2021). Perhaps this can help in our efforts to clearly, objectively, and urgently address the challenges ahead.

The National Academy of Engineering, National Academies, is bringing many previously disparate and fragmented disciplines and areas of scholarship of complex systems into more holistic thinking (Madhavan et al, 2020). It is challenging and difficult work to digest such broad knowledge but it is an important start to a better way forward, in transportation, mobility, and other areas. After all, a unifying characteristic of complex systems is that they are driven by human behavior, and human thinking.

Of course an elephant in the room is what impact will the $1.9 trillion Covid relief package have on our society, economy, environment, and people’s lives to include the transportation and mobility space (Pramuk, 2021; Morris, 2021).

The new Biden Administration also envisions a once in a century opportunity to change transportation—a new transportation era—comparing this opportunity to the interstate highway system started under President Eisenhower and the transcontinental railroad started under President Lincoln (Yen, 2021). As such, the Administration continues to pursue a robust $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan (Tankersley, et al, 2021). While the majority of Americans support this and there is a verifiable need, it is also a “heavy lift” considering the complexities of our modern day society and politics.

There is also the underlying discussion of how to best democratize the Internet and social media without interfering with the great good these tools provide (IoTeX, 2020; Newcomb, 2016; Smith, 2019; Edinger, 2021; Vicente, 2020; Susaria, 2021; Edinger, 2021).

Recently, the first Nobel Prize Summit was held and attended by Nobel Prize Laureates and other experts. The summit was convened to promote a transformation to global sustainability for human prosperity and equity. As was pointed out, time is the natural resource in shortest supply. This summit was established amid a global pandemic, a crisis of inequality, an ecological crisis, a climate crisis, and an informational crisis. Without transformational action this decade, humanity is taking colossal risks with our common future. The future of all life on this planet, humans and our societies included requires us to become effective stewards in creating a harmonious biosphere and society. This includes inherent infrastructure and mobility. The bottom line, there is now an existential need to build economies and societies that support Earth system harmony rather than disrupt it. In summary, we need to reinvent our relationship with planet Earth as we build this new future. (The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine, 2021)

There is an adage that says the only way to predict the future is to invent, or create, it. There are myriad efforts in that direction. To that end we may be seeing the private sector emerging to lead that future while the public sector follows.

Which takes us back to the quote at the beginning of Part 1 in this series:

The world as we have created it is a process of our thinking. It cannot be changed without changing our thinking.”
― Albert Einstein

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The Mobility Ecosystem: the changing landscape and the need for fresh, new ideas (Part 7: Maximizing Results with Limited Funding)

20 Saturday Feb 2021

Posted by John L. Craig in Alternative Delivery, Asset & Life Cycle Management, Benefit-Cost or BC, Construction, Design, Design Exceptions, Practical Design, Least-Cost Planning, Funding, Intelligent Transportation Systems or ITS, Internet of Things or IoT, Maintenance, Materials, Multimodal Needs Assessment, Needs Assessments, Operations, Partnerships and Collaboration, Performance Measurement and Management, Planning, Program Management, Program or Project Controls, Project Management, Recycling, Relationships, Return on Investment or ROI, Risks, Safety, Scope, Schedule, Budget, Transportation

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There is never enough funding in any organization to meet the needs, much less the wants. The debates to determine funding and how to allocate it are endless and continue to this day at all levels of government (Ryan, 2021). Typically, the effective use of available funding falls to public sector transportation professionals, unless private-sector owners, in conjunction with private sector partners. Thus, it is important to review some analytic tools, methodologies, and aspects for maximizing results with limited funding. These could loosely be considered part of asset management. A more thorough review of asset management, setting a basis, criteria, and priorities, is on the March 6, 2016, article on this website entitled Transportation Asset Management. This discussion merely augments that discussion and is by no means an exhaustive list. In no particular order, these are some of the more important tools, methodologies, and aspects that can help establish priorities and maximize results with limited funding.

Asset Management: Every public and private body is under increasing pressure to justify investment and that it is making the best use of its resources. The essence of asset management is to better prioritize resources to optimize outcomes, basically institutionalizing a business-like approach to managing infrastructure—asset management. The ability to retain, retrieve, and analyze increasing amounts of data in recent decades has enabled evidence-based decision-making on a network scale. Made possible by computers and digital technology, other “big picture” analyses are increasingly emerging to include the discipline of sustainability that facilitates decision-making among economic, social, and environmental realms. Performance metrics also began to evolve at the same time as asset management. The result is a fundamental framework for managing resources or assets:
- Performance measures: what target is desired and achievable
- Asset:
  - Inventory
  - Condition
  - Utilization
  - Value in dollars
- Life-cycle cost prediction: estimate remaining useful life
- Agency or organization cost
- User cost
- Trade-off analysis and investment strategies (by combining the above to produce an optimized budget)—criteria to develop needs priorities
- Develop an emergency fund for unexpected events
- Develop program including asset needs priorities with available funding
  
  Asset management is quite literally the best of continuous improvement. That process never ends. More discussion can be found on this website under transportation asset management.

Scope, Schedule, Budget: This is closely related to Planning, design, below. Regardless, as a program or project is contemplated, a preliminary and final scope, schedule, and budget must be developed. Tied to the next bullet point, it is common for scope to creep or an ill-defined scope to create problems later on. As such, that can lead to schedule and budget problems later. This is especially prevalent in mega and giga programs and projects. The takeaway: spend the time necessary up front to conduct thorough due diligence, planning, risk assessment, and scoping. It is a lot better and a lot less expensive in time, money, and resources to do it right the first time vice the second or more times. Effective and efficient program or project controls are essential to track changes against the baseline contract of scope, schedule, and budget.
Planning, Design: There is no substitute for good, solid planning and design. This in no way discounts good construction, maintenance, operations, materials, and other practices. These can all save or optimize dollars when done right. However, many times problems and opportunities missed can be traced back to the beginning of planning and design. It can be a challenge and take time to get input and reviews from construction, maintenance, operations, stakeholders, and partners. It is worth the effort to do things right or as well as possible at the beginning. Otherwise, time and money will be expended later and opportunities will likely be lost. More broadly, open-source engineering can be more valuable economically and in terms of building on standard design specifications. Thus providing more cost-effective projects, more innovation, improved quality, and scalability. (Shepherd-Smith, 2021).
Needs Assessments, Criteria, and Priorities: This may appear obvious, and as stated above it is discussed in more detail in other blogs. Regardless, this process is essential in setting priorities for what to do first, second, third, and so on in spending on the highest priorities. While many governments do this, all do not. The larger, more capable governments tend to do this a lot more than smaller governmental, typically more rural, cities and counties. This typically manifests itself in state departments of transportation doing thorough needs assessments while smaller, less populated cities and counties have neither the staff or funding to do this. This can be a problem. This can be similar in non-highway modes. One solution is to generate one multimodal needs assessment for states, cities, and counties. To gain consensus on such a mechanism would be Herculean but not impossible. As it is, each entity has its own way of identifying needs and setting priorities and the challenge increases as governments establish “formulas” in an attempt to equitably distribute funding to the highest needs. This manifests itself in several ways such as donor and donee states relative to the federal Highway Trust Fund, earmarks depending on the power of elected officials, competitive grants which typically leave out smaller, more rural communities, and others. These are all an attempt to do the best we can but they also fall short. The net result—the inability to fund the highest needs. While it is true that federal and state highways carry the vast majority of traffic, the needs of rural communities are of equal importance. So, the idea of a multimodal and multigovernmental needs assessment should be aspired to if not accomplished. There are some rare examples of similar efforts in other areas that have been successful such as the State of Iowa developing one common state-city-county design manual. Also, the State of Nebraska requires an annual needs assessment (with inventory, standard criteria, inspections, estimated scope and cost, etc) for their state highway system so that the state legislature has a target to determine funding. Uniquely, Nebraska law has a variable fuel tax that adjusts the state fuel tax to meet that funding, regardless of impacts such as decreased fuel consumption due to pandemics or other unforeseen events. A system that effectively prioritizes limited funding to address the needs of one seamless transportation/mobility system would be invaluable to our society vice each governmental entity struggling on its own. While this may never be achieved, it is worth aspiring to.
Design Exceptions, Practical Design, and Least-cost Planning: Until perhaps the last two decades, the standards for planning and design were fairly rigidly followed, partly due to liability risks of not doing so. That is understandable because of the importance of standards. However, as funding continues to be tight as needs grow, exceptions have increasingly been made. This evolution began as design exceptions to established standards, to somewhat broader exceptions termed practical design, and that has evolved into more recently termed least-cost planning. The core purpose of all is to maximize results with limited funding where a high proportion of benefits can be gained while accepting little or no additional risk. These are of course highly scrutinized for approval but can save considerable dollars. One mega program in Oregon had 275 design exceptions which saved $683 million.
Alternative Delivery Methodologies: Alternative delivery methodologies have been around for decades in the form of contracts of which the U. S. Army Corps of Engineers has been one of the more innovative. In 1993 the Design-Build Institute of America (DBIA) agreed upon the term design-build and its use among transportation agencies began to accelerate. Originally established to save time, not money, design-build projects have evolved to save time and money (Figure 8). Other integrated delivery methodologies have also begun to emerge such as design-build-operate, design-build-operate-maintain, construction management-general contractor, public-private-partnerships, and others, each designed for a specific purpose in saving the owner time, money, level of oversight, or all three. The key is that integrated delivery teams can work together, resulting in time and money savings for the owner. Embedded is risk and who has it, but that’s another subject that warrants a paper on its own.

FIGURE 8. Design-build compared to other project delivery methods. Source: DBIA, n.d.

Materials: This may seem out of place but it is not. High-strength steel is a good example of allowing wider gaps to be spanned with fewer vertical supports and girders. Superpave asphalt mixes compete effectively with concrete depending on the costs of oil, cement, and other commodities. Likewise, steel can compete against concrete and accrue savings. Fiberglass reinforced-polymer girders and other corrosion-resistant features have also been employed to extend the design life of bridges to at least 100 years (Knapschaefer, 2021). 3D printed bridges and other structures can save on time and labor (U.S. Bridge, 2021).
Recycling: Recycling is about saving resources and money. Asphalt, concrete, and steel are regularly recycled by owners and construction contractors, through both on-site and off-site processes. Depending on the strength, bridge girders are utilized on other bridges as appropriate. Old rail cars have been recycled as low cost-culverts where appropriate. One of the more innovative recycling methods being studied is to use old wind turbine blades in bridges as well as buildings, etc., rather than placing them in landfills (Stone, 2021).
Engineering Economics: This tool has been around for over 100 years but continues to be relevant although other tools now supplement it and can lead to other conclusions.
Life Cycle Costs: This tool has been around for over 100 years although it has been refined during that time. As our perspectives have increasingly become long-term versus short-term or a human lifetime, the life cycle of infrastructure, vehicles, and other assets have taken on additional meaning relative to least-cost decision-making. Therefore, the life cycle cost of any asset is critical to know.
Return on Investment (ROI): Commonly known as ROI, this is another analytical tool that can have myriad perspectives. That is the ROI in economic terms, jobs created or sustained, environmental values, social values, and so forth. Regardless, knowing the return on dollars expended is a critical part of decision-making.
Benefit-Cost (BC): Benefit-Cost is commonly assessed as a ratio, normally calculated in dollars. Frequently shown as an equation such as a BC ratio of 3:1 or B/C and if the numerator or B is greater than the denominator, then it is concluded to be a benefit. If the numerator or B is less than 1 it is considered a net cost and not a benefit. Nonetheless, this is another important tool in determining investments.
Economies of Scale: This is a methodology that can provide a return on scale. For example, “bundling” projects within a region can reduce mobilization and material delivery costs. Conversely, breaking projects up has the potential to increase competition and reduce costs. While this is not a new concept, it is valuable. The term “bundle” is a relatively new term and is now commonly used. Previously, other terms such as “tied projects” were used to describe the same methodology. Buying materials, equipment, and other assets at scale can also provide economies of scale and reduce costs.
Multimodal Needs Assessments: Typically, needs assessments have been done by asset or mode with critically important and useful outcomes. As mobility has become increasingly multimodal, the question has become how to conduct needs assessments across all modes. Multimodal planning is common but multimodal needs assessments are largely qualitative, not standardized, and not widely accepted. One of the outcomes in the absence of good, repeatable, and reliable multimodal needs assessments is that funding (federal and state) is distributed based on modal assessments, dominated by highways and bridges, and then a somewhat subjective assessment of how to distribute dollars to each mode. Until we achieve a truly standardized multimodal needs assessment with specific criteria, allocating funds to other modes (such as transit and pedestrians) will be a challenge. Generally, transportation is not a particularly partisan topic at governmental levels, partly because it provides objective information to help determine what funds can or will be appropriated and what the long-term implications may be. This is critical for the built environment in which we live.
Operations and Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS): ITS was one outcome of advancing digital technology. What this allowed was the transportation system to be instrumented with sensors that provide data and information, especially on volume and speed, to a central office that can more quickly and effectively assess and respond to congestion and issues stemming from traffic congestion, crashes, and other incidences. Advanced Traffic Management System (ATMS) is used for traffic management and control and accounts for the most revenue in the overall ITS market. Although the benefit-costs of ITS vary widely from 2-9:1, others exceed 100:1. One ratio used for comparing ITS to more infrastructure is 8:1, a methodology to get more capacity from the existing roadway. The prudent use of ITS technologies can achieve greater benefit at less cost than more concrete, asphalt, and steel. Related, vehicle pricing systems such as electronic toll collection, congestion pricing, vehicle miles traveled, and other road user charging systems can be cost-effective. In addition, transport and supply chain service providers are seeking cost-effective solutions that ITS can provide to boost their productivity, performance, and profits. On e example developed early in Nebraska was a statewide oversize-overweight permitting system that allowed truckers to efficiently route their trucks and cargo and became an effective decision-making tool.
Internet of Things or IoT: There are benefits to be gained throughout society by leveraging IoT, including in government, and new opportunities are continually being uncovered to improve services and efficiencies (Center for Digital Government, 2019; AT&T, n.d.; ServiceNow, n.d.; Descant, 2019).
Partnerships and Collaboration: It is virtually impossible for any organization to have all the talent, tools, and resources to optimize returns for society, the economy, and our environment. As such, partnerships and collaboration are keys to leveraging the unique strengths of an organization. This is not a new concept, but like the exponential growth of our 4^th Industrial or Digital Age, the need is greater than ever before. These strategies continue to grow (Salesforce, n.d.).
Program and Project Management: Good program and project management begins and ends with good leadership. The team is all-important since they are the ones that get work done. As such, good leadership can make a team better while bad leadership can destroy a team. This easily translates to improved or decreased performance, costs, and profits. This topic is also discussed in other blogs on leadership, program, and project management on this website. There are many articles and books on program and project management, one of the most prolific and best is Robert Prieto who publishes regularly in PM World. He also authored one of the most comprehensive books on the subject, “Theory of management of large complex projects” (Prieto, 2015). Also, review PMWorld Journal, https://pmworldjournal.com/welcome, and the Project Management Institute (https://www.pmi.org).
Risk Management: This is the identification, evaluation, and prioritization of risks followed by methodologies to minimize, monitor, and control the probability or impact of unfortunate events or to maximize the realization of opportunities. The U. S. transportation industry has enormous risk exposure and among the most risk-prone industries in the world. As such, the federal transportation law—Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21^st Century Act, or MAP-21, and signed into law in 2012 (FMCSA, n.d.)—established the requirement for states to develop a risk-based asset management plan. Risk management is a dynamic process and used routinely within the public and private sectors. Without such plans, organizations can be surprised by events with negative financial impact or miss positive opportunities with improved outcomes. The literature on risk management is rich and continues to evolve.
Strong Relationships: This is another topic that might seem odd within a discussion of maximizing results with limited funding. However, the adage “a good relationship can make a bad contract better while a bad relationship can make a good contract worse” reflects the importance of strong relationships. It is common to have disputes but resolving them in a fair and amicable way while preserving the all-important relationships is critical. No one really wins when disputes move to litigation. This topic is further discussed in other blogs on this website, including the importance of trust.
Safety: This may seem an odd topic within the topic of maximizing results with limited funding but the cost in lives, injuries, and property damage is staggering. As has been stated, virtually every transportation organization has the safety of their employees and traveling public as their highest priority. One of these efforts to improve safety, although for NASCAR racing, has important implications for the traveling public (Midwest Roadside Safety Facility, n.d.; Wikipedia, 2021). The work towards a safer built environment will likely never end.

This is by no means meant to be an exhaustive list and is only intended as a sample. The search to reduce costs is part of continuous improvement and that never ends. There are some very simple changes that cumulatively can have huge impacts including the use of LED bulbs in traffic signals and buildings, the use of highly reflective tape rather than electric lit signs, shutting off computers during overnight hours, and so on. This, again, is in no way a substitute for sound and skilled planning, project development, design, construction, maintenance, and operations, all of which continue to evolve and improve within their own discipline.

The Biden Administration recently announced through their Infrastructure for Rebuilding America grants or INFRA some of the above tools and methods as part of their criteria in addition to other related criteria such as climate change, environmental justice, and racial equity (Ichniowski, 2021). Still, other technologies are being advanced with their own inherent efficiencies (New Hampshire Union Leader, 2021; VIA, n.d.; LeBeau, 2021; Danko, 2021; Ewoldsen, 2021). Other technologies that may seem a bit far-fetched continue to advance and may be part of a transportation future and at less cost (Levy, 2021; Subin, 2021; Halvorson, 2021). Still, other areas are advancing, including space, and may well have cost-effective impacts on our futures on earth (Adams, 2021; Hughes, 2020).

Citations

Adams, R. D. (2021, January 21). AI spacefarers and cosmic testbeds: robust robotic systems forge path for human space exploration. TechRepublic. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.techrepublic.com/article/ai-spacefarers-and-cosmic-testbeds-robust-robotic-systems-forge-path-for-human-space-exploration

AT&T (n.d.) Creating Better Communities. Government Technology. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://media.erepublic.com/document/GT18_HANDBOOK_ATT_Slides_V.pdf

Center for Digital Government. (2019). IoT innovation: how government is uncovering new opportunities. Center for Digital Government sponsored by Cisco. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://media.erepublic.com/document/CDG18_WHITE_PAPER_Cisco-IoT-NewOps_V.pdf

Danko, P. (2021, February 3). Arcimoto’s latest stock surge gives it $1B market cap. Portland Business Journal. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www-bizjournals-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.bizjournals.com/portland/news/2021/02/03/arcimotos-market-cap-1b.amp.html

DBIA. (n.d.). Why choose design-build? Design-Build Institute of America. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://dbia.org/what-is-design-build/

Descant, S. (2019, October 29). Chicago collaboration looks to redefine modern transportation. Government Technology. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.govtech.com/transportation/Chicago-Collaboration-Looks-to-Redefine-Modern-Transportation.html

Ewoldsen, B. (2021, January 21). New mobility services combined with transit show potential to further accessibility, efficiency, equity, safety, and sustainability. Transportation Research Board. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from http://www.trb.org/main/blurbs/181729.aspx

FMCSA. (n.d.). MAP-21 – moving ahead for progress in the 21st century act. Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.fmcsa.dot.gov/mission/policy/map-21-moving-ahead-progress-21st-century-act

Halvorson, B. (2021, February 15). Toyota claims the 2021 Mirai fuel-cell car cleans the air, calls it “minus emissions.” Green Car Reports. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1131268_toyota-claims-the-2021-mirai-fuel-cell-car-cleans-the-air-calls-it-minus-emissions

Hughes, O. (2020, November 25). To the moon and beyond: the robots that are blazing a trail for human space exploration. TechRepublic. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.techrepublic.com/article/to-the-moon-and-beyond-the-robots-that-are-blazing-a-trail-for-human-space-exploration

Ichniowski, T. (2021, February 17). Biden administration adds new climate objective for INFRA grants. Engineering News-Record. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.enr.com/articles/51239-biden-administration-adds-new-climate-objective-for-infra-grants

Knapschaefer, J. (2021, January 25). Novel fiberglass birders extend life of Maine bridge. Engineering News-Record. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.enr.com/articles/51086-novel-fiberglass-girders-extend-life-of-maine-bridge

LeBeau, P. (2021, February 10). United Airlines orders electric vertical aircraft, invests in urban air mobility SPAC. CNBC Evolve. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/10/united-airlines-orders-electric-vertical-aircraft-invests-in-urban-air-mobility-spac.html

Levy, M.G. (2021, February 12). Researchers levitated a small tray using nothing but light. Wired. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.wired.com/story/researchers-levitated-a-small-tray-using-nothing-but-light/

Midwest Roadside Safety Facility. (n.d.). The safer barrier. University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://mwrsf.unl.edu/saferBarrier.php

New Hampshire Union Leader. (2021, February 15). State-of-the-art traffic signals installed at 17 Dover intersections. New Hampshire Union Leader. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.unionleader.com/news/safety/state-of-the-art-traffic-signals-installed-at-17-dover-intersections/article_672c26f7-cfcb-5ea2-bd9f-befb1a46d840.html

Prieto, R. (2015). Theory of management of large complex projects. Construction Management Association of America. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/299980338_Theory_of_Management_of_Large_Complex_Projects

Salesforce. (n.d.). Accelerating government innovation through collaboration. Salesforce. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://media.erepublic.com/document/GOV19_BRIEF_Salesforce_01_V.pdf

ServiceNow. (n.d.). Redefining service delivery for citizens: best practices and a checklist for success. ServiceNow. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://media.erepublic.com/document/ebook-government-modernizing-csm.pdf

Shepherd-Smith, P. (2021, February 10). Open source engineering has a role to play in digital transformation. New Civil Engineer. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.newcivilengineer.com/opinion/open-source-engineering-has-a-role-to-play-in-digital-transformation-10-02-2021/

Stone, M. (2021, January 8). Today’s wind turbine blades could become tomorrow’s bridges. Grist. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://grist.org/energy/todays-wind-turbine-blades-could-become-tomorrows-bridges/

Subin, S. (2021, February 14). Why one big Wall Street banker is betting flying taxis will replace helicopters. CNBC Evolve. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/14/why-wall-street-banker-thinks-flying-taxis-will-replace-helicopters.html

Thomas, R. (2021, January 29). Lawmakers offer competing priorities for infrastructure plans. The Hill. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/infrastructure/536595-lawmakers-offer-competing-priorities-for-infrastructure

U.S. Bridge. (2020, March 24). The future of 3D printed bridges and construction. U.S. Bridge. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://usbridge.com/the-future-of-3d-printed-bridges-and-construction/

VIA. (n.d.). Reimagining how the world moves. VIA. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://ridewithvia.com/?utm_source=pardot&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_february_2021

Wikipedia. (2021, January 24). Safer barrier. Wikipedia. Retrieved February 20, 2021, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAFER_barrier

The Mobility Ecosystem: the changing landscape and the need for fresh, new ideas. (Part 5: Some Other Technology Advances)

13 Saturday Feb 2021

Posted by John L. Craig in 3D Printers, 5.9 GHz, 5G, Artificial Intelligence (AI), Augmented Reality (AR), Autonomous Vehicles, Cloud Services, Communications, Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAV), Cyber-security, Drones, Future, Global Positioning Systems (GPS), Intelligent Infrastructure, Internet of Things or IoT, Lidar, Machine Control, Materials, Mobility Ecosystem, Robotics, Safety, Smart Cities, Solar, Technology, Transportation, Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V), Virtual Reality (VR)

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There is a mounting need from city and road planners to evolve current ground-based infrastructure, especially across transportation networks (Deruytter, 2020). There are a number of technologies, and collections of technologies, that are changing and impacting the mobility space. In Part 4, this writer neglected to acknowledge one of these leading transportation technology centers that is bringing the industry together to develop transportation and mobility solutions—the Infrastructure Automotive Technology Laboratory, or iATL, and iATL Partner Alliance in Georgia. The Intelligent Transportation Society of America (ITSA)—Smarter, Greener, Safer—began in 1991 and has been a primary convention and driver for use of transportation technologies in the intervening 30 years. Below is a brief scan of some of these technologies, each of which could warrant a book to provide a complete coverage.

Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) and Vehicle to Infrastructure (V2I): These are the two primary connected vehicle areas and encompass CAV (connected and automated vehicle). The advantage of V2V is to gain capacity from infrastructure and improve safety (NHTSA, n.d.). This technology may also enable increased speeds and reduce travel time. V2I is beginning to advance as a means of further advancing capacity, safety, and speed. Both V2V and V2I offer the potential to expand other technologies such as battery charging while moving, autonomous routing of vehicles, and providing intelligent infrastructure with the capability of autonomously sending condition and other reports back to a central office for planning and response for repair or replace (RoboticsBiz, 2020; 3M, n.d.).
Intelligent Infrastructure: In addition to being able to send condition and other reports for action to a central office, emerging AI technologies are allowing for self-healing materials that repair themselves (Flower, 2020; Mazzarol, 2012; McFarlane, 2015; McMillan, 2017; ScienceDirect, n.d.).
Internet of Things or IoT: Infrastructure and transportation agencies are leading the way in adopting many IoT technologies, and that will continue. Why? Because they provide tangible results (Center for Digital Government for Spectrum Enterprise, 2019).
3D Printers: These printers have existed for some time but are expanding for construction. This includes the printing of the small 3D plastic models for completing concrete bridges to the printing of steel bridge models (U.S. Bridge, 2020). The basic limitation is only the size of the printing machine and whether that is cost effective.
Materials: Whereas 3D printers are limited by the size of the printing machine, new research is revealing the possibility of rationally designing materials to specification at the micro and macro scale and with broad engineering applications (Jenett et al, 2020). Plus, traditional materials continue to be improved such as ultra-high performance concrete (Carter, 2019).
Artificial Intelligence (AI): This is a leading technology of technologies, combining various technologies into new ones that can perform tasks thought to be science fiction. One of these is “robotic swarms” of meta materials that turn into buildings, vehicles, bridges—delivered in boxes by drones (Jenett, 2020; Wyss Institute, n.d.). The technology currently exists and the U. S. Army has initiated this development in partnership with the private sector including the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Still others are in use such as Building Information Technology or BIM. Others include AI-driven asset management for bridges, monitoring the condition of assets on a real and near-real time basis (Stone, 2021). Yet another focuses on road maintenance (Holliday and Frick, 2021). Ford Motor Company has expanded to leverage AI and machine learning to predict and prevent traffic crashes (Mendoza, 2021). The future of AI is enormous in the transportation and mobility space, and society as a whole (The Washington Post, n.d).
Virtual (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR): Beginning in the gaming business, these technologies continue to rapidly develop, especially in the design and construction arenas. A recent augmented reality innovation by VW and Mercedes Benz enhances safe navigation through an AR blue line down the center line of the lane, allowing the driver to stay focused on the road ahead (Ligon 2021).
Robotics/Drones: These technologies have been in development and use for decades. Like other technologies that reduce the requirement for labor (typically the largest single cost for many organizations) within the mobility space these technologies are increasingly used for terrestrial and aquatic inspections of all kinds, vegetation planting, surveying, aerial photography, movement and delivery of materials, and others. There is continuing discussion on the use of drones, including the potential to lease air space above roads and perhaps generating a new revenue source (Skorup and Harland, 2020; Pressgrove, 2021).
Machine Control: Expanding on robotics and drones that are currently used is the programming of autonomous earthmoving and other equipment, surveying, inspections, etc., on construction sites (TopCon, n.d.; UK Plant Operators, n.d.). These have been in use for some years and allow for greater efficiency at a lower cost. Using currently available technology, other systems are emerging for other activities such as hauling dirt, delivery and placement of materials. Expanding on this area, some years ago the University of Nebraska developed remotely controlled orange work zone barrels to move without the labor required for moving each barrel (Bauer, 2004). This technology could be adopted to other systems, such as the Lindsay Company Road Zipper which moves concrete Jersey barriers on a near-real time basis to adjust lanes and contra flows in conjunction with traffic flow needs, separate bicycle from vehicle traffic, adjust to the needs of construction zones, etc. In effect, this could be done remotely or autonomously. The options are endless and open to continued innovation.
Cloud services: There are a growing number of organizations that are leveraging the cloud for more efficient operations. Among them is Amazon Web Services (AWS) which has a growing presence in the transportation and mobility space (Silver, n.d.). Municipal and state agencies continue to expand use of cloud services for construction oversight and other activities (Yoders, 2021).
5G: This technology holds tremendous promise as it increases the speed and capacity of communications essential to the mobility ecosystem (Abbosh and Downes, 2019). The Internet of Things or IoT is a driver of 5G with three broad categories of use: enhanced broadband, massive IoT sensing, and critical IoT. The massive IoT sensing alone will allow 10 times more devices to connect at 100 times the energy efficiency compared to LTE-Advanced (Little, 2019). Smart cities are being advanced thanks to 5G and other technologies (CBS Interactive Inc., 2020; Abbosh and Downes, 2019). 5G and its capabilities are expanding as this is written. 5G and AI will continue to drive mobility development.
Lidar: This technology has been around for some years, allowing for rapid 3D surveying by law enforcement, surveying by drones, autonomous vehicles, improving safety, enhanced BIM (Building Information Modeling), and other diverse applications that go on and on (Shacklett, 2021). One recent application makes transportation infrastructure more efficient and safer (Clark, 2021).
Global Positioning Systems (GPS): Although around for decades, GPS is worth mentioning because of its importance in pinpointing locations, navigation, and its ease of use (available on smartphones and many other devices). This is critical for many technologies including autonomous vehicles.
5.9 GHz: This bandwidth had been identified for public safety with important uses in the transportation arena. However, recently the Federal Communications Commission or FCC has given this bandwidth away for other commercial purposes. This sorely complicates an important safety tool for the transportation industry (Fisher, 2020).
Communications, integrated and interoperable-voice and data: The most common lesson-learned following disasters is the difficulty of communicating between all parties in both voice and data (FEMA, 2020; FEMA, 2014; OnSolve, n.d.; U.S. Fire Administration, 2015). As such, many states have developed more robust and interoperable communications systems. Nonetheless, effective communications is literally a key to success in responding to man-made or natural disasters and will need to be continually improved and maintained.
Solar: Solar power is developing slowly, but surely, as one of the most important renewable energies. For over 100 years, petroleum-based fuels and electricity generation have been separate industries. Oil was for vehicles, coal and water were for electric power. Drillers versus miners, petrostates versus power utilities. With EVs the distinction between petroleum-based fuels and power markets is blurring. Solar power is rapidly becoming the cheapest form of energy in much of the world, which means that as power markets grow to meet the new demand from EVs, oil is being largely displaced by power from the sun. For nearly 20 years, the International Energy Agency has underestimated the rise of solar power. Every year, their estimates expected the rate of solar growth to plateau, but every year it grew (Figure 7).

FIGURE 7. Sunshine may be the new oil. Every year solar was projected to plateau, and every year it set new records. (Sources: International Energy Agency, BloombergNEF, Auke Hoekstra, in “Peak Oil is Suddenly Upon Us” by Tom Randall and Hayley Warren, Bloomberg Green December 1, 2020)

Solar roadways have been developed in France these past few years. It was recently announced that the first solar roadway to come on line in the U. S. will be in Georgia (Cooke, 2017; Edelstein, 2020).

Cyber-security: There is an arms race going on to hack and secure data. As technology has developed so has the need for adequate cyber-security. It is wise to have one, if not at least two, backup systems to protect transportation/mobility systems, including autonomous vehicles. Every organization continues to struggle with enhancing security (Center for Digital Government, 2020).

There are literally thousands of other technologies and associated tools in the transportation/mobility industry, and other fields, that continue to be developed, some proprietary and some not, in an effort to increase sales/profits and benefit-cost. A scan of printed and electronic trade journals, conferences, proposals, and sales presentations reflects the stunning scale of these developments. A brief scan reveals advanced and integrated project and program management, data collection and workflow automation, big data and analysis, remote piloted aerial and aquatic vehicles or drones, machine learning, Lidar, ground penetrating radar, geomatics, geophysics, Reality Mesh Services (i.e. 3D models out of unordered photographs or laser scans), Building Information Modeling (BIM) across the project life cycle while incorporating Reality Capture for Digital Twins and integrated for Asset Management, and many, many others.

This also does not discount the importance and value of the myriad existing methodologies that continue to advance, have been around for years, and that can increase system efficiency. Just a few include data collection and analysis, signal timing, static signing, variable message signs, 511, video cameras, radar, roadway weather notifications, traffic operations centers and infrastructure sensors, materials, recycling, planning, design, construction, maintenance, operations, and so on.

Literature Cited

3M Road Safety. (n.d.). What is Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) communication and why do we need it? 3M. Retrieved February 13, 2021, from https://www.3m.com/3M/en_US/road-safety-us/resources/road-transportation-safety-center-blog/full-story/~/what-is-vehicle-to-infrastructure-v2i-communication-and-why-do-we-need-it/?storyid=021748d7-f48c-4cd8-8948-b7707f231795

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Leadership in Transportation

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Category Archives: Materials

The Mobility Ecosystem: the changing landscape and the need for fresh, new ideas (Part 7: Maximizing Results with Limited Funding)

Citations

The Mobility Ecosystem: the changing landscape and the need for fresh, new ideas. (Part 5: Some Other Technology Advances)

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